HTSC(SH:601688) HTSC·2025-08-13 09:44Inflation Data Summary - The U.S. July core CPI increased by 0.3% month-on-month, aligning with market expectations, and the year-on-year core CPI rose by 0.2 percentage points to 3.1%, slightly above the expected 3.0%[2][4] - The overall CPI month-on-month decreased from 0.29% in June to 0.2% in July, matching expectations, while the year-on-year CPI remained stable at 2.7%, below the expected 2.8%[2][4] Tariff Impact on Inflation - The report indicates that tariffs have a moderate impact on inflation, with companies passing only 50-60% of tariff pressures onto consumers, preventing a significant rise in inflation[4][6] - Despite an increase in tariffs in August, the overall core inflation is expected to rise moderately due to weak consumer demand and a softening job market, maintaining the forecast for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September[4][6] Market Reactions - As of the report's timing, the market anticipates a 96% probability of a rate cut in September, with the Federal Reserve's rate cut expectations rising by 4 basis points to 61 basis points[2][4] - The U.S. dollar index fell by 0.3% to 98.3, while U.S. stocks opened higher following the inflation data release[2][4] Core Services and Goods Analysis - The month-on-month increase in core CPI was primarily driven by a rebound in core services, particularly volatile airline ticket prices, while core goods inflation remained moderate[2][6] - Core services excluding housing saw a month-on-month increase of 0.55%, driven by transportation and medical services, indicating a warming trend in service prices[6][10] Specific Item Trends - In July, the month-on-month growth of core goods was only 0.21%, with significant slowdowns in price increases for clothing, furniture, and entertainment goods, reflecting the limited transmission of tariff impacts[6][7] - Energy prices saw a notable decline, with the month-on-month energy component dropping from 0.95% in June to -1.07% in July, contributing to an overall CPI decrease of approximately 0.13 percentage points[6][7]