KWEICHOW MOUTAI(SH:600519) HTSC·2025-08-13 10:51Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of RMB 1,945.58 [1][2][9] Core Views - The company has demonstrated steady growth, achieving a total revenue of RMB 910.9 billion and a net profit of RMB 454.0 billion in the first half of 2025, reflecting year-on-year increases of 9.2% and 8.9% respectively [6][9] - The company is focusing on enhancing market confidence and refining its product matrix while expanding both domestically and internationally, which is expected to drive future growth [6][9] - The company is leveraging its brand strength and governance to maintain a competitive edge, with a positive outlook for high-quality development in the coming years [9] Financial Performance Summary - For the first half of 2025, the revenue from Moutai liquor reached RMB 756 billion, up 10% year-on-year, while series liquor revenue was RMB 138 billion, up 5% [7] - The gross margin for the first half of 2025 was 91.5%, with a slight decrease of 0.4 percentage points year-on-year [8] - The company reported a net profit margin of 49.8% for the first half of 2025, indicating strong profitability [8] Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company forecasts revenue growth of 15.66% for 2024, followed by 9% in 2025, and a gradual increase in subsequent years [5][21] - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is RMB 74.83, with a projected PE ratio of 26x [9][22] Market Expansion - The company has increased its direct sales ratio, with direct sales revenue growing by 19% year-on-year in the first half of 2025 [7] - The overseas revenue for the first half of 2025 was RMB 29 billion, marking a significant year-on-year increase of 31% [7]