STL(SZ:002648) Guoxin Securities·2025-08-13 11:48Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [6][21]. Core Views - The company achieved a year-on-year growth of 33.4% in net profit attributable to shareholders in the first half of 2025, with revenue reaching 23.46 billion yuan, reflecting a 20.9% increase [2][10]. - The company is investing 25.7 billion yuan in a new high-end materials industrial park project, which is expected to start production in 2026, indicating a focus on long-term growth and technological advancement [4][20]. - The company is facing challenges due to import tariffs and restrictions on ethane exports from the U.S., but has adapted its strategies to mitigate these impacts [2][10]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company reported revenue of 23.46 billion yuan and a net profit of 2.74 billion yuan, with a significant increase in operating cash flow by 138.9% to 5.05 billion yuan [2][10]. - The gross margin for the second quarter of 2025 was 19.3%, showing a slight decline compared to the previous year, while the net margin improved by 0.8 percentage points year-on-year [2][10]. - The company’s revenue from functional chemicals, high polymer materials, and other segments showed varied performance, with functional chemicals growing by 32.1% year-on-year [3][19]. Earnings Forecast - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders has been adjusted to 6.67 billion yuan, 7.43 billion yuan, and 8.47 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting a downward revision due to import tax impacts and weak downstream demand recovery [4][21]. - The expected diluted EPS for 2025, 2026, and 2027 is projected to be 1.98 yuan, 2.21 yuan, and 2.51 yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 9.5x, 8.5x, and 7.5x [5][21].