Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for Kweichow Moutai with a target price of Rmb1,972, indicating a potential upside from the current price of Rmb1,420 [2][6]. Core Insights - Kweichow Moutai demonstrated resilience amid industry volatility, with mid-term performance showing steady growth driven by an optimized core product structure. In H1 2025, the company achieved revenue of Rmb89.39 billion, a year-on-year increase of 9.1%, and a net profit of Rmb45.40 billion, up 8.9% [3][12]. - The company is focusing on international expansion and direct sales, with Q2 direct sales revenue reaching Rmb16.79 billion, a 16.5% increase, and international revenue growing by 27.6% to Rmb1.77 billion [4][13]. - Profitability remains strong, with a gross margin of 90.4% and a net profit margin of 47.8%, despite slight declines due to changes in product mix [5][14]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue and profit forecasts for Kweichow Moutai are optimistic, with projected revenues of Rmb189.91 billion, Rmb207.21 billion, and Rmb226.90 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, alongside net profits of Rmb93.82 billion, Rmb103.82 billion, and Rmb115.45 billion for the same years [2][11]. - The diluted EPS is expected to grow from Rmb75 in 2025 to Rmb92 in 2027, reflecting a strong earnings growth trajectory [2][11]. - The company maintains a commitment to a dividend payout ratio of at least 75% over the next three years, translating to a dividend yield of approximately 4% [6][15].
贵州茅台(600519):龙头韧性凸显,配置价值突出