GANYUAN FOODS CO.(SZ:002991) Guoxin Securities·2025-08-13 13:17Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Neutral" [6][12]. Core Views - The company's revenue for the first half of 2025 decreased by 9.3% year-on-year to 940 million yuan, with net profit declining by 55.2% to 70 million yuan. The decline in revenue is attributed to ongoing pressure in distribution channels and a shift towards direct sales in supermarkets [10][12]. - The gross margin for the first half of 2025 fell by 1.3 percentage points to 33.6%, influenced by rising costs and changes in channel structure. The distribution channel's gross margin decreased by 2.4 percentage points due to high palm oil prices, while the e-commerce channel saw an increase of 6.1 percentage points [2][11]. - The company has increased its spending on brand building and personnel, which has negatively impacted profitability. The sales and management expense ratios rose significantly, leading to a net profit margin of 5.0%, down 11.5 percentage points year-on-year [2][11]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The revenue forecast for 2025-2027 has been revised downwards to 2.29 billion, 2.61 billion, and 3.04 billion yuan, respectively, reflecting a growth of 1.5%, 14.0%, and 16.4% year-on-year. The net profit forecast has also been adjusted to 240 million, 310 million, and 410 million yuan, indicating a decline of 35.7% in 2025, followed by growth in subsequent years [3][12]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 2.59, 3.30, and 4.36 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 22, 18, and 13 [3][12]. Market Trends - The company is expected to continue facing challenges in traditional distribution channels throughout the year, but there is potential for growth in the bulk snack channel and e-commerce, which may lead to a positive revenue growth rate in the second half of the year [12].