Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for Beijing Yanjing Brewery with a target price of Rmb 13.50, based on a current price of Rmb 12.51 [2][13]. Core Insights - The company's performance exceeded expectations, with robust growth in both volume and average selling price (ASP), highlighting operational resilience. In H1 2025, revenue reached Rmb 8.56 billion, a year-on-year increase of 6.4%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was Rmb 1.10 billion, up 45.4% year-on-year [3][10]. - The growth in beer sales volume and ton price was 2.0% and 4.8%, respectively, reaching 2.352 million tons and Rmb 3,358 [3][10]. - The product structure is continuously optimizing, with revenue from mid-to-high-end products increasing by 9.3% year-on-year, now accounting for 70% of total revenue [3][10]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue and profit forecasts for the company are as follows: - Revenue for 2024 is projected at Rmb 14.67 billion, increasing to Rmb 15.09 billion in 2025, and Rmb 15.28 billion in 2026 [9]. - Net profit is expected to grow from Rmb 1.06 billion in 2024 to Rmb 1.51 billion in 2025, and Rmb 1.69 billion in 2026, reflecting a growth rate of 64% and 43% for the respective years [9]. - The diluted EPS is forecasted to be Rmb 0.37 in 2024, Rmb 0.53 in 2025, and Rmb 0.60 in 2026 [9]. Operational Efficiency - The company has seen a significant improvement in its net profit margin, which rose to 12.9% in H1 2025, with Q2 net profit margin exceeding 19.8% [5][12]. - The gross profit margin for the beer business improved to 45.7%, with overall gross profit margin at 45.5% [5][12]. - The expense ratios for sales and management have decreased, indicating enhanced operational efficiency [5][11]. Strategic Initiatives - The flagship product U8 is expected to achieve an annual sales target of 900,000 tons, contributing significantly to revenue growth [6][13]. - The "beer + beverage" strategy has shown initial success, with tea beverage revenue increasing by 98.7% year-on-year [6][13]. - The company is deepening its "100 cities and 100 counties" project to accelerate market penetration in weaker regions [6][13].
燕京啤酒(000729):量价齐升超预期,改革红利加速兑现