XACIG(SH:600596) Changjiang Securities·2025-08-13 15:00Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [9][11]. Core Viewpoints - The company is a dual leader in glyphosate and organosilicon, with the organosilicon expansion cycle nearing its end, and a potential bottom recovery in the industry; the demand for silicon-based terminal materials is driven by emerging applications, accelerating high-end substitution; glyphosate supply and demand remain stable, awaiting a turning point, with considerable elasticity [3][9]. Company Overview - The company, established in 1965, introduced glyphosate technology in 1987 and entered the organosilicon field in 1997, gradually forming a dual business model of crop protection and silicon-based materials. The company has accelerated its extension into the new energy sector, forming a new industrial pattern of "traditional chemicals + high-end materials + new energy" [5][20]. Financial Analysis - The company is currently in a bottom accumulation phase, with significant revenue and profit fluctuations. In 2021, benefiting from a surge in core product prices, the company achieved a revenue of 18.98 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 51.4%, and a net profit of 2.65 billion yuan, up 354.6% year-on-year. However, in 2023-2024, due to the impact of overseas pesticide inventory cycles and oversupply in organosilicon, the company's main product prices have declined, leading to a decrease in performance [33][34]. Organosilicon Market - The global economic recovery has driven strong growth in overseas demand for organosilicon, with China's export demand showing an upward trend. The domestic apparent consumption of organosilicon is steadily increasing, supported by both traditional and emerging sectors, particularly in new energy vehicles and photovoltaics [6][60]. Glyphosate Market - Glyphosate is the largest herbicide in the global market, with stable demand supported by the growing planting area of genetically modified crops. The company, as a major producer of glyphosate, holds over 70% of the global market share, and the industry is expected to stabilize and potentially recover through self-discipline [8][9]. Investment Recommendations - The report forecasts the company's net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 to be 450 million, 750 million, and 1.11 billion yuan respectively, indicating a positive outlook for the company's performance as product demand recovers [9].