从资金流向上来看，当日农化制品板块主力资金净流出7.25亿元，游资资金净流入2.1亿元，散户资金净 流入5.15亿元。农化制品板块个股资金流向见下表： 证券之星消息，9月4日农化制品板块较上一交易日下跌1.24%，华鲁恒升领跌。当日上证指数报收于 3765.88，下跌1.25%。深证成指报收于12118.7，下跌2.83%。农化制品板块个股涨跌见下表： | 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 成交额(元) | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 600596 | 新安股份 | 10.86 | 2.36% | 58.18万 | | 6.37亿 | | 003042 | 中农联合 | 16.55 | 2.16% | 4.88万 | | 8087.14万 | | 870866 | 绿亭科技 | 10.09 | 2.13% | 3.39万 | | 3410.72万 | | 002999 | 天禾股份 | 6.78 | 2.11% | 11.02万 | | 7470.41万 | | 001231 | 农心科技 | 20.30 | 1. ...

吴严明 ◎记者 谭镕 "冷静看世界，清醒看自己。"这是新安股份董事长吴严明的认知方法论。在他看来，既要冷静看待化工 行业发展规律，也要清醒规划自身企业战略路径。只有这样，公司才能跨越周期，赢得未来。 薪火相传一甲子，新安股份从白沙滩畔起步，手握草甘膦、有机硅两张业务王牌，沿着主营业务的方向 不断夯实地基，并将藤蔓伸向世界。 去年，吴严明接棒成为新安股份董事长。面对公司已经形成的庞大"产业树"，吴严明不敢有半分松懈： 依托于磷基、硅基等材料，这两棵"产业树"还能往什么方向伸展？研发成果又能在哪些土壤扎根？ 在吴严明看来，制造业必须增加科技属性，而新赛道的兴起也离不开制造业。这正是发展契机。随着 3C电子、人形机器人等赛道逐步兴起，公司将目光投向这些战略性新兴产业领域。 从做"面粉"到做"蛋糕" 走进新安股份产品展厅，琳琅满目的应用场景令人惊叹——从消费电子领域的芯片材料，到新能源汽车 的高压线用硅橡胶，再到仿生皮肤的超低硬度硅橡胶，这家化工企业正在"重构"产业版图。 近年来外部环境复杂多变，面对化工行业周期性波动，吴严明提出"双轨并行"战略：一是主业极致化。 化工行业未来或将迎来周期性复苏，草甘膦和有机硅两大基 ...

Market Overview - The agricultural chemical sector experienced a decline of 2.2% on September 2, with Sierte leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3858.13, down 0.45%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12553.84, down 2.14% [1] Stock Performance - Notable gainers in the agricultural chemical sector included: - Yingtai Biological: Closed at 4.62, up 3.59% with a trading volume of 411,100 shares and a turnover of 188 million [1] - New Agricultural Shares: Closed at 19.88, up 3.11% with a trading volume of 111,800 shares and a turnover of 225 million [1] - Taihe Shares: Closed at 32.07, up 2.66% with a trading volume of 98,100 shares and a turnover of 313 million [1] - Major decliners included: - Sierte: Closed at 5.03, down 7.71% with a trading volume of 714,700 shares and a turnover of 361 million [2] - Xin'an Shares: Closed at 10.71, down 5.56% with a trading volume of 636,200 shares and a turnover of 689 million [2] - Lianhua Technology: Closed at 11.33, down 5.19% with a trading volume of 858,800 shares and a turnover of 989 million [2] Capital Flow - The agricultural chemical sector saw a net outflow of 973 million from institutional investors, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 728 million [2][3] - Key stocks with significant capital flow included: - Xin'an Shares: Institutional net inflow of 31.48 million, retail net outflow of 37.07 million [3] - New Agricultural Shares: Institutional net inflow of 29.05 million, retail net outflow of 19.80 million [3] - Hong Sifang: Institutional net inflow of 24.48 million, retail net outflow of 29.65 million [3]

证券之星消息，9月1日农化制品板块较上一交易日上涨0.9%，阳煤化工领涨。当日上证指数报收于 3875.53，上涨0.46%。深证成指报收于12828.95，上涨1.05%。农化制品板块个股涨跌见下表： 从资金流向上来看，当日农化制品板块主力资金净流入854.41万元，游资资金净流出7859.7万元，散户资 金净流入7005.29万元。农化制品板块个股资金流向见下表： | 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 成交额(元) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 600691 | 阳煤化工 | 2.58 | 7.95% | 66.14万 | 1.67亿 | | 600596 | 新安股份 | 11.34 | 6.98% | 89.68万 | 10.24亿 | | 002250 | 联化科技 | 11.95 | 5.01% | 111.75万 | 13.27亿 | | 600389 | 江川股份 | 26.34 | 3.74% | 16.44万 | 4.30亿 | | 002545 | 东方铁塔 | 10.52 | 3.54% | 28.16万 ...

中金发布研报称，2025年3月以来草甘膦价格稳步上行，且5月以来上行趋势加速，8月末价格较年内低 点已上涨约24%至2.73万元/吨。短期维度，草甘膦价格或有望于4Q25上行至3万元/吨，主要考虑：需求 端，由于北美需求旺季将于10月开始，由于跨国农化企业库存已基本消纳至正常水平，4Q25草甘膦需 求有望维持在较高水平；供给端，考虑到工程建设进度，江山股份于贵州投建的5万吨/年草甘膦产能于 2025年内投产概率较低，4Q25新增供应较少，短期供需关系有望维持相对紧平衡。 中金主要观点如下： "反内卷"催化叠加供需格局好转，3月以来草甘膦价格持续反弹 2025年3月以来草甘膦价格稳步上行，且5月以来上行趋势加速，8月末价格较年内低点已上涨约24%至 2.73万元/吨。3月-4月的价格上行主因在3月13日草甘膦行业召开反内卷会议，叠加3月17日起2025年 CAC农化展开幕，草甘膦生产企业逐步进行限产协同，价格出现低位反弹。 受益于价格向好，草甘膦企业盈利近期也出现较为明显改善，截至8月29日，中国草甘膦价格2.73万元/ 吨，测算甘氨酸法价差修复至约1.36万元/吨，较3月约9000元/吨的价差出现明显提升，若 ...

Core Insights - The report emphasizes that the chemical industry is entering a new phase of capital expenditure, with a focus on the rebalancing of supply and demand following the release of production capacity during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [2][6] - The report indicates that the bottom of the cycle is becoming clearer, with potential price increases for chemical products driven by demand recovery and supply stability in the second half of the year [2][6] Industry Overview - The current cycle has reached its tail end, with a total of 12 quarters of decline since Q3 2022, following a 7-quarter expansion from Q4 2020 to Q2 2022 [10][12] - The report outlines that the chemical industry has experienced three significant price fluctuation cycles since 2010, with the latest cycle characterized by a demand-driven recovery followed by a supply-side pressure [8][10] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on sectors with relatively low valuations, such as sucralose (recommended: Jinhe Industrial), pesticides (recommended: Yangnong Chemical, Runfeng Shares), and MDI (recommended: Wanhua Chemical) [3][4] - It highlights the importance of domestic demand in countering tariff impacts, recommending companies in refrigerants and fertilizers [3][4] - The report identifies investment opportunities in sectors with upcoming capacity releases, such as organic silicon (recommended: Xin'an Chemical) and spandex [3][4] Price and Profitability Trends - The report notes that many sub-industry product prices remain at historical lows, with specific prices for spandex, PA6, and other fibers at 0%, 4%, and 5% of historical levels respectively [28] - It mentions that the chemical industry has seen a slight recovery in profitability in Q1 2025, although the overall performance remains under pressure [27][25] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The report indicates that the global chemical capital expenditure is on a downward trend, with domestic companies experiencing a slowdown in investment while still facing significant pressure to convert projects into fixed assets [22][32] - It also states that both domestic and international markets are entering a replenishment phase in 2025, which may influence inventory levels and pricing strategies [35][36]

Core Viewpoint - New An Co., Ltd. is facing severe challenges due to industry overcapacity and declining prices in the silicon-based new materials sector, leading to significant financial losses and a negative net profit for the first time since its listing [1][14]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, New An reported total revenue of 8.058 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.07%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 69.0734 million yuan, down 47.71% [1]. - The company's non-recurring net profit was -23.9177 million yuan, a dramatic decline of 197.73%, indicating that its core business is in a loss-making state [1]. - The reliance on government subsidies (64.39 million yuan) and non-current asset disposals (51.77 million yuan) to support profits raises concerns about the sustainability of its earnings [1]. Group 2: Industry Context - The silicon-based new materials sector, particularly organic silicon, has seen a significant increase in production capacity, with total domestic organic silicon capacity reaching 3.2 million tons by the end of 2024 [3][12]. - Despite a compound annual growth rate of 10.7% in apparent consumption from 2017 to 2024, the rapid expansion of capacity has led to a supply-demand imbalance [3][12]. - The price of industrial silicon has plummeted, with a decline of 23% from the end of 2023 to the end of 2024, and further dropping to 9,350 yuan per ton by mid-2025, resulting in a significant impact on profitability [3][5]. Group 3: Asset and Cash Flow Management - New An has recognized asset impairment risks, with a total impairment provision of 83.93 million yuan in the first half of 2025, including a 68.54 million yuan provision for inventory [5][6]. - The company's accounts receivable reached 2.157 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.68%, with a staggering ratio of accounts receivable to net profit at 4,195.51% [6]. - Continuous negative cash flow from operating and investing activities, amounting to -1.72 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, indicates a weak ability to generate cash from core operations [7]. Group 4: Strategic Challenges - New An's major project, the organic silicon synthesis project, has been delayed from September 2025 to March 2026 due to changing market conditions and increased competition [13]. - The company is still pursuing upstream industrial silicon capacity expansion despite the declining prices, raising questions about the viability of this strategy [14]. - The overall situation reflects a structural issue within the organic silicon industry, where overcapacity and price wars are severely compressing profit margins [14].

Core Viewpoint - New An Co., Ltd. is facing its most severe test since its listing due to industry-wide overcapacity and declining prices in the silicon-based new materials sector, leading to significant financial losses and a negative net profit for its main business [1][15]. Company Performance - In the first half of 2025, New An Co. reported total revenue of 8.058 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.07%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 69.0734 million yuan, down 47.71% year-on-year [1]. - The company's non-recurring net profit was -23.9177 million yuan, a staggering year-on-year drop of 197.73%, indicating that its main business is in a loss-making state [1]. - The company has relied heavily on government subsidies (64.39 million yuan) and non-current asset disposals (51.77 million yuan) to support its profits [1]. Industry Context - New An Co. operates in two main business segments: crop protection and silicon-based new materials, with the latter being the focus of market attention and previously driving high valuations [2]. - The company has a total organic silicon monomer production capacity of 500,000 tons per year, with approximately 80% used for self-produced downstream products [2]. Market Challenges - The organic silicon intermediate DMC market price has significantly declined, with domestic total capacity reaching 3.2 million tons by the end of 2024, leading to a supply-demand imbalance despite a compound annual growth rate of 10.7% in consumption from 2017 to 2024 [3]. - The price of industrial silicon has plummeted, with the average price dropping from 15,900 yuan per ton at the end of 2023 to 9,350 yuan per ton by mid-2025, representing a 23% decline [3][5]. Financial Strain - New An Co. has recognized asset impairment provisions totaling 83.93 million yuan in the first half of 2025, with inventory impairment losses reaching 68.54 million yuan [5]. - The company's accounts receivable balance was 2.157 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.68%, indicating significant pressure on cash flow management [6]. - The company's cash flow from operating and investing activities has been negative, with net cash flows of -1.72 billion yuan in the first half of 2025 [7]. Debt and Liquidity Concerns - Although the asset-liability ratio has decreased slightly, the company's non-current liabilities due within one year have surged by 171% to 529 million yuan, indicating increased repayment pressure [10]. - The current and quick ratios are approaching critical levels, with the current ratio at 1.33 and the quick ratio at 0.97 [10]. Project Delays - New An Co. has postponed its key project, the organic silicon synthesis project, from September 2025 to March 2026 due to changes in macroeconomic conditions and intensified market competition [14]. - The company is facing a broader industry challenge of overcapacity and declining prices, leading many firms to slow down investment to avoid losses [14][15]. Overall Industry Outlook - The challenges faced by New An Co. reflect structural issues within the organic silicon industry, where rapid capacity expansion is not matched by demand growth, leading to intense price competition and compressed profit margins [15]. - The company's ongoing plans to expand industrial silicon capacity may pose further risks in a declining price environment [15].

截至8月28日收盘，转基因概念下跌1.81%，位居概念板块跌幅榜前列，板块内，托普云农、荃银高 科、万向德农等跌幅居前，股价上涨的有3只，涨幅居前的有新安股份、芭田股份、华邦健康等，分别 上涨0.57%、0.56%、0.41%。 资金面上看，今日转基因概念板块获主力资金净流出2.17亿元，其中，13股获主力资金净流出，10股主 力资金净流出超千万元，净流出资金居首的是托普云农，今日主力资金净流出5394.86万元，净流出资 金居前的还有隆平高科、大北农、国投丰乐等，主力资金分别净流出3527.24万元、2289.39万元、 1900.35万元。今日主力资金净流入居前的概念股有新安股份、敦煌种业等，主力资金分别净流入571.65 万元、38.02万元。（数据宝） 转基因概念资金流出榜 | 代码 | 简称 | 今日涨跌幅（%） | 今日换手率（%） | 主力资金流量（万元） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 301556 | 托普云农 | -7.67 | 18.55 | -5394.86 | | 000998 | 隆平高科 | -0.30 | 2.20 | -3527.24 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [1]. Core Views - The company, Xin'an Chemical, is positioned as a dual leader in glyphosate and organosilicon, with expectations for performance improvement under the backdrop of national policies emphasizing anti-involution [5][8]. - The company has a comprehensive business model that integrates crop protection, silicon-based new materials, and new energy materials, leveraging its unique "chlorosilicon-phosphorus" circular economy model [12][5]. - The glyphosate market is expected to see a turning point due to demand recovery and supply disruptions, with the company benefiting from its global market presence and production capacity [5][18]. - The organosilicon sector is anticipated to undergo structural changes in demand, with the company poised to benefit from the end of the expansion cycle and a shift towards high-end applications [5][33]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - Xin'an Chemical was established in 1965 and has developed a strong presence in the agricultural chemicals and organosilicon sectors, with a focus on a full-chain integration model in crop protection [12][5]. - The company has a complete industrial chain from upstream silicon mining to downstream product manufacturing, with applications in various industries including electronics and transportation [12][5]. 2. Glyphosate and Organosilicon Market Dynamics - Glyphosate is the world's leading herbicide, with a significant market share, and the company has a production capacity of 80,000 tons per year [5][18]. - The demand for glyphosate is expected to increase due to the growing adoption of genetically modified crops, particularly in China, which is projected to enhance market demand significantly [20][22]. - The organosilicon market is experiencing a shift in demand structure, with the company focusing on high-end applications and innovations in terminal products [5][36]. 3. Financial Projections - The company is projected to see substantial growth in net profit from 388 million yuan in 2025 to 957 million yuan by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 653.9% and 36.7% respectively [8][7]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are expected to rise from 0.29 yuan in 2025 to 0.71 yuan in 2027, indicating strong profitability potential [8][7]. 4. Market Position and Competitive Landscape - The glyphosate industry is characterized by high concentration, with the company holding a 10% market share in China, benefiting from a favorable supply-side environment [23][26]. - The organosilicon industry is seeing a consolidation of production capacity among leading firms, with the company positioned to capitalize on this trend due to its cost advantages and integrated operations [40][43].