KWEICHOW MOUTAI(SH:600519) ZHONGTAI SECURITIES·2025-08-14 06:48Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The report indicates that while the overall liquor consumption is under pressure, the sales of Moutai liquor are showing stable growth. The company achieved a total revenue of 91.094 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 9.16% [6] - The report adjusts the revenue and profit forecasts for 2025-2027, expecting revenues of 186.174 billion yuan, 201.639 billion yuan, and 217.701 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year growth of 9% for 2025 [6][7] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company reported a net profit of 45.403 billion yuan, up 8.89% year-on-year. The second quarter alone saw a net profit of 18.555 billion yuan, an increase of 5.25% [6] - The sales revenue from Moutai liquor in the first half of 2025 reached 75.590 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.24% [6] - The gross profit margin for the first half of 2025 was 91.30%, a decrease of 0.46 percentage points compared to the previous year [6] Revenue Breakdown - The company's liquor product revenue grew by 9.35% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, with a notable increase in direct sales channels, which saw an 18.62% increase [6] - The revenue from series liquor products in the first half of 2025 was 13.763 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.68% [6] Profitability and Valuation - The report projects earnings per share (EPS) of 74.80 yuan for 2025, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 19.0 [4][6] - The net profit margin for the first half of 2025 was 52.56%, a slight decrease of 0.14 percentage points year-on-year [6] Future Outlook - The company is expected to maintain stable growth in the coming years, with revenue forecasts adjusted to reflect a more challenging consumption environment [6][7] - The report emphasizes the importance of Moutai's brand strength and market positioning in sustaining its growth trajectory despite industry pressures [6]