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361度(01361):“超品店”开店符合预期,经营性现金流大幅改善

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The opening of "super stores" is in line with expectations, leading to a significant improvement in operating cash flow [5] - The company reported a revenue of 5.7 billion RMB for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 11% [7] - The e-commerce segment achieved a revenue of 1.82 billion RMB, with a year-on-year increase of 45%, contributing significantly to the company's growth [7] - The company has shown a consistent increase in dividend payout, with an expected dividend of 0.204 HKD per share for the first half of 2025, resulting in a payout ratio of 45% [7] - Both adult and children's segments are performing well, with adult business revenue reaching 4.44 billion RMB (up 10.8%) and children's business revenue at 1.26 billion RMB (up 11.4%) [7] - The company has opened 49 new "super stores" as of June 30, 2025, which is in line with expectations and is expected to be a new growth point for the business [7] - Operating cash flow for the first half of 2025 was 520 million RMB, a year-on-year increase of 227% [7] - The company is expected to see net profits of 1.315 billion RMB, 1.493 billion RMB, and 1.688 billion RMB for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 14.5%, 13.49%, and 13.10% [6][7] Financial Summary - The company’s revenue is projected to grow from 10,073.51 million RMB in 2024 to 14,773.90 million RMB in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 12.66% [6][8] - The gross profit margin is expected to improve slightly from 41.5% in 2024 to 42.0% in 2027 [8] - The return on equity (ROE) is projected to remain stable around 12.32% to 12.52% from 2025 to 2027 [6][8] - The company’s total assets are expected to grow from 15,160 million RMB in 2025 to 19,200 million RMB in 2027 [8]