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万华化学(600309):产销量稳步增长,看好旺季聚氨酯价格修复

Investment Rating - Investment rating: Buy (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 90.901 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 6.35%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 6.123 billion yuan, down 25.10% year-on-year [6] - The polyurethane segment showed revenue growth of 4.04% year-on-year, with production and sales volumes increasing by 150,000 tons and 340,000 tons respectively [7] - The petrochemical segment experienced a revenue decline of 11.73% year-on-year, but production and sales volumes increased by 180,000 tons and 100,000 tons respectively [8] - The company is expected to see a recovery in product prices during the peak season in the second half of the year [7] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q2 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 47.834 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.04% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 11.07% [6] - The net profit for Q2 was 3.041 billion yuan, down 24.30% year-on-year and 1.34% quarter-on-quarter [6] Segment Analysis Polyurethane Segment - Revenue reached 36.888 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 25.68%, down 2.32 percentage points year-on-year [7] - The average market price for pure MDI was around 18,800 yuan/ton, while the average for TDI products was 12,400 yuan/ton [7] Petrochemical Segment - Revenue was 34.934 billion yuan, with a gross margin of -0.37%, down 4.90 percentage points year-on-year [8] - The average prices for various petrochemical products showed mixed performance, with some experiencing significant declines [8] Future Outlook - The company is expanding its production capacity in the polyurethane and new materials sectors, with expected increases in MDI and TDI capacities [9] - New projects in the lemon aldehyde and nylon sectors are set to enhance the company's new materials business [11] - Forecasted net profits for 2025-2027 are 14.358 billion, 16.498 billion, and 17.370 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 13.73, 11.95, and 11.35 [12]