Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for Greentown China [3][8]. Core Views - Greentown China is positioned as a leader in high-quality housing, leveraging a mixed-ownership structure that combines state-owned enterprise credibility with market-oriented mechanisms. The company has demonstrated strong product capabilities and a competitive edge in the housing market, particularly in first- and second-tier cities [7][8]. Company Overview - Greentown China Holdings Limited was established in 1995 in Hangzhou and has evolved into a national developer with a focus on high-end residential projects. The company has a diversified product portfolio, including luxury villas and urban landmarks, and has maintained a leading position in the industry through its commitment to quality [17][18]. - The major shareholders include China Communications Construction Company (29% stake) and Kowloon Warehouse Group (22.95% stake), with the founder holding 8.03% [19][23]. Land Acquisition & Inventory - The company has been actively acquiring land since 2017, with an average land acquisition to sales ratio of 58% from 2017 to 2024. In the first half of 2025, this ratio was 55%. The focus is on key cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, and Hangzhou, with over half of the land value concentrated in ten core cities [7][39]. - As of the end of 2024, Greentown's total land bank was 27.47 million square meters, with a total land value of 449.6 billion yuan, of which 53% is located in the core ten cities [7][39]. Sales & Product Strength - The company reported self-invested sales of 80.3 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, with a sales price of 35,000 yuan per square meter, leading the industry. Greentown's competitive advantage lies in its strong product development capabilities and market-validated premium pricing [7][8]. - The company has established eight product series tailored to market needs, demonstrating a verified ability to command price premiums averaging 15% [7][8]. Financials & Valuation - Greentown's financial performance is expected to improve, with projected net profits of 1.01 billion yuan in 2025, down 36.8% year-on-year, followed by a recovery in 2026 and 2027. The target market capitalization is set at 33.3 billion HKD, based on a price-to-book ratio of 0.85 [6][8]. - The company has recognized impairment provisions totaling 11.4 billion yuan from 2019 to 2024, indicating a relatively adequate level of impairment compared to industry averages [7][8].
绿城中国（03900）：好房子引领者，理顺机制再出发