汤臣倍健（300146）：25Q2收入降幅收窄，控费得当盈利改善

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [2] Core Insights - The company reported a total revenue of 3.532 billion yuan for H1 2025, a year-on-year decline of 23.4%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 737 million yuan, down 17.3%. In Q2 2025, revenue was 1.741 billion yuan, a decline of 11.5%, but net profit increased by 71.4% to 282 million yuan, aligning with market expectations [7] - Due to the ongoing external consumption environment and unstable market competition, the profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been adjusted downwards, with new forecasts for 2027 introduced. The projected net profits for 2025-2027 are 707 million, 813 million, and 934 million yuan, respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 8.3%, 15.0%, and 14.9% [7] - The company is focusing on high-quality operations and actively reforming online and offline channels to adapt to external changes. Long-term growth is expected as the population's age structure improves and public health awareness increases [7] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue projections for 2025 are set at 6.179 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decline of 9.6%. The gross profit margin is expected to be 67.3% [6] - The company achieved a gross profit margin of 68.4% in Q2 2025, an increase of 1.68 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to improved product structure from high-value new products [7] - The net profit margin for Q2 2025 reached 17.1%, up 8.86 percentage points year-on-year, driven by effective cost control [7] Revenue Breakdown - The main brand and "Jianli Duo" benefited from effective operational adjustments, with Q2 revenue for the main brand at 905 million yuan, down 17.0% year-on-year, and "Jianli Duo" at 210 million yuan, down 3.67% [7] - Online channel revenue was 918 million yuan, a decline of 12.07%, while offline channel revenue was 810 million yuan, down 10.69% [7] Price Performance Catalyst - Key catalysts for stock price performance include better-than-expected growth in major products and accelerated online channel development [7]