Guotai Haitong Securities(SH:601211) Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2025-08-15 01:23Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The market risk preference for crude oil has improved, and investors are advised to hold long positions in the positive spread. [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs International Crude Oil - WTI September crude oil futures rose $1.31 per barrel, or 2.09%, to $63.96 per barrel; Brent October crude oil futures rose $1.21 per barrel, or 1.84%, to $66.84 per barrel; SC2510 crude oil futures rose 4.60 yuan per barrel, or 0.95%, to 490.50 yuan per barrel. [1] Geopolitical News - The Ukrainian military hit a Russian refinery in the Volgograd region in a nighttime drone attack. [3] - US Middle East envoy Witkoff, Russian Finance Minister, Russian Defense Minister, and Russian Presidential Envoy and Sovereign Wealth Fund负责人 Kirill Dmitriev are expected to attend the "Trump-Putin meeting" in Alaska. [3] - Russian President Putin said the US is making positive efforts to end the conflict and promote a nuclear weapons control agreement. [3] - Trump told European and Ukrainian leaders that the US is willing to provide security guarantees to Ukraine under certain conditions. [3] - Iran has reached an agreement to resume negotiations with the US. [3] Supply and Demand - Russian Deputy Prime Minister Novak supports extending the gasoline export ban until September. [2] - Indian state - owned refiners have started inquiring about purchasing Russian oil as the discount improves. [3] - Despite increased drone attacks on Russian refineries by Ukraine in early August, Russian oil product exports increased, with total refined product exports rising to 2.31 million barrels per day in the first 10 days of August, the highest since February and 9% higher than the daily average in July. [3] - Russian announced production cuts of 85,000 barrels per day from July to November and an additional 9,000 barrels per day in December. It will also extend oil production cuts for the rest of 2025 to compensate for previous over - production beyond OPEC+ quotas. [3] Inventory Data - As of the week ending August 8, US natural gas inventories totaled 318.6 billion cubic feet, an increase of 56 billion cubic feet from the previous week, a year - on - year decrease of 79 billion cubic feet (2.4% decline), and 196 billion cubic feet (6.6% increase) higher than the five - year average. [3] - As of the week ending August 13, Singapore fuel oil inventories decreased by 1.674 million barrels to 24.645 million barrels, a three - week low. [3] Monetary and Policy - Some Fed officials believe that a significant interest rate cut next month is not appropriate, and a 50 - basis - point cut does not match the current economic situation or data. [5] - The EU hopes to pass the 19th round of sanctions against Russia next month. [5] Trend Intensity The trend intensity of crude oil is 1, indicating a relatively neutral outlook. [4]