Nanhua Futures(SH:603093) Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-08-15 04:54Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Tin prices declined slightly on Thursday, fluctuating with the non - ferrous metals sector. Recently, the macro - environment has limited impact on tin prices. The repeated delay of the full resumption of tin mines in Myanmar has significantly supported tin prices and may have a continuous impact. According to Alphamin's financial report, the production cut at the Bisie tin mine has exceeded expectations, pushing up short - term tin prices. There has been no significant change in demand [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Price and Volatility - The latest closing price of tin is 267,420 yuan/ton, with a monthly price range forecast of 245,000 - 263,000 yuan/ton. The current volatility is 14.36%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility is 26.1% [2]. - In the tin futures market, the latest prices of沪锡主力,沪锡连一 are 267,420 yuan/ton,沪锡连三 is 267,820 yuan/ton,伦锡3M is 33,435 dollars/ton (down 0.79% daily), and the沪伦比 is 8.02 (up 0.12% daily) [6]. 3.2 Risk Management Recommendations - Inventory Management: For high finished - product inventory and fear of price drops, it is recommended to sell 75% of the main Shanghai tin futures contracts at around 275,000 yuan/ton and sell 25% of the SN2510C275000 call options when volatility is appropriate [2]. - Raw Material Management: For low raw - material inventory and fear of price increases, it is recommended to buy 50% of the main Shanghai tin futures contracts at around 230,000 yuan/ton and sell 25% of the SN2510P245000 put options when volatility is appropriate [2]. 3.3 Factors Affecting Prices - Likely Positive Factors: Sino - US tariff policy easing, the semiconductor sector remaining in the expansion cycle, and the resumption of production in Myanmar falling short of expectations [7]. - Likely Negative Factors: Repeated tariff policies, the inflow of Burmese tin ore into China, and the slowdown of the semiconductor sector's expansion and its transition from an expansion cycle to a contraction cycle [5]. 3.4 Spot and Inventory Data - Spot Data: The latest price of Shanghai Non - Ferrous tin ingots is 269,500 yuan/ton (up 0.86% weekly), 1 tin premium is 300 yuan/ton (down 25% weekly), 40% tin concentrate is 257,500 yuan/ton (up 0.9% weekly), 60% tin concentrate is 261,500 yuan/ton (up 0.89% weekly), etc. [12]. - Inventory Data: The total warehouse receipts of tin in the Shanghai Futures Exchange are 7,422 tons (down 0.11% daily), in Guangdong are 4,881 tons (down 0.49% daily), in Shanghai are 1,670 tons (up 0.97% daily), and the total LME tin inventory is 1,780 tons (up 0.85% daily) [20].