KWEICHOW MOUTAI(SH:600519) HUAXI Securities·2025-08-15 05:48Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company reported a pragmatic slowdown in Q2, reducing channel fund occupation and increasing financial support for its sauce-flavored liquor distributors [3] - The company achieved a revenue of 893.89 billion yuan in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 9.10%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 454.03 billion yuan, up 8.89% year-on-year [2] - The company is focusing on long-term development by slowing down the growth of its series liquor and strengthening its self-operated store system while continuing its globalization strategy [4] Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 387.88 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.28%, and a net profit of 185.55 billion yuan, up 5.25% year-on-year, indicating a pragmatic approach in response to weakening demand [3] - The cash flow from sales in Q2 2025 was 389.43 billion yuan, a decrease of 4.64% year-on-year, but the cash collection rate remained above 1, indicating good liquidity [3] - The company’s gross profit margin in Q2 2025 was 90.63%, a slight decrease of 0.26 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to price inversions in non-standard products [6] Sales and Distribution - The revenue from the company's flagship liquor reached 320.32 billion yuan in Q2 2025, a year-on-year increase of 10.99%, while the revenue from series liquor declined by 6.53% [4] - The company has 2,280 domestic distributors as of Q2 2025, with a net addition of 160 distributors in H1, indicating a strong focus on expanding the series liquor distribution network [5] - The overseas revenue increased by 31.29% year-on-year, reflecting the successful implementation of the company's globalization strategy [5] Profitability and Cost Management - The company’s net profit margin in Q2 2025 was 50.79%, a decrease of 0.90 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to the slower profit growth compared to revenue growth [6] - The total expenses increased, with the tax and additional fees rate at 17.09%, up 0.07 percentage points year-on-year, while the total expense rate rose to 8.72%, an increase of 0.68 percentage points year-on-year [6] Future Outlook - The company has slightly adjusted its profit forecast due to the pragmatic slowdown in Q2 and the weak industry demand, but it still aims for a 9% revenue growth target for the year [7] - The revenue estimates for 2025-2027 have been adjusted to 1898.50 billion yuan, 1997.91 billion yuan, and 2068.43 billion yuan respectively, while net profit estimates have been revised to 935.45 billion yuan, 990.17 billion yuan, and 1029.35 billion yuan [7]