博源化工（000683）：周期底部彰显韧性，阿拉善二期顺利推进中

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][10]. Core Views - The company demonstrates resilience at the bottom of the cycle, with the Alashan Phase II project progressing smoothly [2][4]. - Despite a decline in core product prices and gross margins, the company has seen growth in production and sales volumes, which partially offsets the impact of price drops [5][6]. - The Alashan project is expected to significantly enhance the company's long-term growth potential, with Phase I already operational and Phase II construction underway [7][10]. Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 5.92 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 16%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 740 million yuan, down 39% year-on-year [4][5]. - The sales gross margin was 31.8%, a decline of 12.6 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 18.2%, down 7.9 percentage points year-on-year [4][5]. - For Q2 2025, the company reported revenue of 3.05 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 19.6%, but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 6.3% [6]. Product Segmentation - The company's main product segments include soda ash, sodium bicarbonate, and urea, with respective revenues of 3.55 billion yuan, 760 million yuan, and 1.48 billion yuan in H1 2025 [5][12]. - The soda ash segment saw a revenue decline of 10% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 35.7%, down 20.7 percentage points [5][12]. - The sodium bicarbonate segment experienced a revenue drop of 17% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 40.9%, down 11.8 percentage points [5][12]. Future Projections - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 12.22 billion yuan, 14.10 billion yuan, and 15.76 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [10][28]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 1.61 billion yuan, 1.97 billion yuan, and 2.31 billion yuan for the same years [10][28]. - The company is recognized as a leader in the soda ash industry, benefiting from low-cost advantages and the completion of the Alashan Phase I project [10].