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百隆东方(601339):上半年盈利改善净利润增长68%,中期拟分红58%

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][36][41] Core Views - The company has shown significant improvement in profitability, with a net profit growth of 68% year-on-year, despite a decline in revenue [1][3] - The recovery in profitability is attributed to high capacity utilization and a decrease in raw material costs, leading to a substantial recovery in gross margin [3][36] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 1.5 yuan per 10 shares, with a dividend payout ratio of 57.67% [1][3] Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 3.591 billion yuan, a decrease of 9.99% year-on-year, primarily due to cautious ordering from downstream customers influenced by U.S. tariff policies [1] - The gross margin improved by 5.20 percentage points to 15.20%, benefiting from high operating rates in domestic and Vietnamese factories and a decline in raw material costs [1][34] - The net profit attributable to the parent company reached 390 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 67.53% [1][3] Market Trends - The second quarter saw a revenue of 1.86 billion yuan, down 13.7% year-on-year, with a notable recovery in orders expected following the implementation of U.S. tariffs on Vietnamese exports [2][3] - The gross margin for the second quarter increased by 2.01 percentage points year-on-year to 15.51%, driven by improved operating rates and lower raw material costs [2] Profitability Forecast - The company is expected to maintain high operating rates and benefit from low-cost cotton inventory, leading to sustained high profitability [3][36] - The forecast for net profit attributable to the parent company for 2025-2027 has been raised to 660 million, 700 million, and 740 million yuan, respectively, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 61.9% in 2025 [3][36][37] Valuation Metrics - The projected earnings per share for 2025 is 0.44 yuan, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 12.6 [37][38] - The company’s market capitalization is approximately 8.383 billion yuan [5][38]