Yanjing Brewery(SZ:000729) Guolian Minsheng Securities·2025-08-15 12:03Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [6] Core Views - The company reported its 2025 H1 results, with operating revenue of 8.558 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.37%. The net profit attributable to the parent company and the net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses were 1.103 billion yuan and 1.036 billion yuan, respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 45.45% and 39.91%. The revenue met expectations, while the net profit after deductions exceeded the previous forecast limit. The major product U8 continues to perform well, with stable performance in the North China market and impressive results in East and Central China regions. The reform and efficiency improvements have driven a continuous increase in net profit margin, leading to the maintenance of the "Buy" rating [4][12][15]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2025 H1, the company's beer revenue reached 7.896 billion yuan, up 6.88% year-on-year, with sales volume of 2.3517 million kiloliters, a 2.03% increase. The beer price per ton was 3,357.61 yuan per kiloliter, reflecting a 4.75% year-on-year growth. The product structure continues to optimize, with mid-to-high-end products and regular products growing by 9.32% and 1.56% respectively. The company is implementing the "Hundred Counties Project" and "Hundred Cities Project" nationwide, with year-on-year growth in North China, East China, and Central China of 5.61%, 20.48%, and 15.35% respectively. Online, KA channel, and traditional channel revenues grew by 30.79%, 23.04%, and 6.02% respectively [13]. Profitability and Efficiency - In 2025 Q2, the company's gross margin decreased by 0.64 percentage points to 47.70%. The selling expense ratio and management expense ratio were 6.02% and 9.21%, down by 3.99 and 1.92 percentage points year-on-year. Benefiting from the improvement in expense ratios, the net profit margin attributable to the parent company and the net profit margin after deductions were 19.82% and 18.67%, up by 5.12 and 4.36 percentage points year-on-year. The company continues to release reform dividends [14]. Future Projections - The company is expected to achieve operating revenues of 15.329 billion yuan, 16.023 billion yuan, and 16.741 billion yuan for the years 2025 to 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 4.51%, 4.53%, and 4.48%. The net profits attributable to the parent company are projected to be 1.500 billion yuan, 1.814 billion yuan, and 2.119 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 42.06%, 20.93%, and 16.82%. The corresponding CAGR is 26.14%, with PE ratios for 2025 to 2027 being 23.2, 19.1, and 16.4 times [15][16].