南华期货沥青风险管理日报-20250815

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply side of asphalt remains stable, while the demand side is affected by rainfall and funds shortage, failing to effectively release, resulting in a weaker short - term peak season. The overall fundamentals have weakened month - on - month. In the medium and long term, the demand will improve as the construction season approaches in autumn and the funds situation eases [2]. - The geopolitical premium of crude oil has declined due to the easing of the Russia - Ukraine conflict, alleviating the tight supply expectation of asphalt cost [2]. - The unilateral price of asphalt has weakly corrected, and the month - spread, basis, and crack spread have all weakened to some extent [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Asphalt Price and Volatility - The price range forecast for the asphalt main contract in the month is 3400 - 3750, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 22.30% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 8.95% [1]. - On August 15, 2025, the Shandong spot price was 3620 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan from the previous day and 140 yuan from the previous week; the Yangtze River Delta spot price was 3730 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day and down 50 yuan from the previous week; the North China spot price was 3680 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan from the previous day and up 20 yuan from the previous week; the South China spot price was 3520 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan from the previous day and 60 yuan from the previous week [1][5][8]. 3.2 Asphalt Risk Management Strategy - For inventory management, when the finished - product inventory is high and there are concerns about price drops, enterprises with long spot positions can short the bu2509 asphalt futures at a 25% hedging ratio in the range of 3650 - 3750 to lock in profits and make up for production costs [1]. - For procurement management, when the regular procurement inventory is low and procurement is based on orders, enterprises with short spot positions can buy the bu2509 asphalt futures at a 50% hedging ratio in the range of 3300 - 3400 to lock in procurement costs in advance [1]. 3.3 Core Contradictions - The supply of asphalt is stable, but demand is affected by rainfall and funds shortage. The factory - warehouse pressure is small, but the social - warehouse destocking is slow, and speculative demand has weakened. The basis in Shandong and East China has weakened, and the crack spread remains high [2]. 3.4利多解读 - The low pressure on asphalt factory warehouses provides a basis for manufacturers to support prices [3]. - The demand is in the seasonal peak season [7]. - The low - level start - up and the expectation of catch - up construction in the South [7]. - The atmosphere of anti - involution has created a strong expectation of capacity reduction [7]. 3.5利空解读 - The recent increase in the arrival of Venezuelan Merey crude oil [7]. - The short - term plum - rain season in the South has dragged down demand [7]. - The slowdown of social - warehouse destocking and the weakening of the basis [7]. - The consumption tax reform in Shandong may drive up the start - up rate [7].