CIG(SH:603083) Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-08-15 14:10Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views - The market has high expectations for increased sugar production in India and Thailand during the 25/26 sugar season, which suppresses sugar prices. Brazil's overall production progress is lower than the historical average, causing concerns about potential production cuts and leading to fluctuations in raw sugar prices. However, data from early July shows an acceleration in production progress and a significant increase in the sugar - to - ethanol ratio. In China, the opening of the profit window for out - of - quota imports has strengthened import expectations, causing futures prices to quickly decline to close the profit window [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Sugar Price Forecast and Risk Management Strategy - Price Range Forecast: The predicted monthly price range for sugar is 5600 - 6000, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 4.40% and a historical percentile (3 - year) of 2.2% [3]. - Inventory Management Strategy: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about price drops, it is recommended to short Zhengzhou sugar futures (SR2509) with a 50% hedging ratio at an entry range of 5800 - 5850. Also, selling call options (SR511C5800) with a 25% hedging ratio at an entry range of 30 - 40 can reduce costs and lock in the selling price of spot sugar [3]. - Procurement Management Strategy: For enterprises with low regular procurement inventory aiming to purchase based on orders, it is recommended to buy Zhengzhou sugar futures (SR2509) with a 50% hedging ratio at an entry range of 5650 - 5700. Selling put options (SR511P5500) with a 75% hedging ratio at an entry range of 40 - 50 can reduce procurement costs and lock in the purchase price of spot sugar [3]. Core Contradictions - Market expectations of increased production in India and Thailand during the 25/26 sugar season suppress sugar prices. Brazil's slower - than - usual production progress and subsequent acceleration, along with changes in the sugar - to - ethanol ratio, affect raw sugar prices. The opening of the out - of - quota import profit window in China leads to a decline in futures prices [4]. Bullish Factors - As of the end of July, cumulative sugar sales in Guangxi reached 549.61 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 39.66 million tons, with a sales - to - production ratio of 85.01%, a 2.51 - percentage - point increase. Industrial inventory was 96.89 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11.3 million tons. In Yunnan, cumulative sugar sales reached 195.14 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 32.62 million tons, with a sales - to - production ratio of 80.68%, a 0.7% increase [5]. - The National Federation of Cooperative Sugar Factories in India (NFCSF) expects the ending sugar inventory in the 2024/25 sugar season to be between 480 - 500 million tons, sufficient to meet domestic consumption from October to November 2025 [5]. - China has suspended imports of Thai syrup and premixed powder [5]. - From the beginning of the 2025/26 sugar season to the first half of July, the cumulative cane crushing volume in Brazil's central - southern region was 256.14 billion tons, a 9.61% year - on - year decrease. The sugar - to - ethanol ratio was 51.58%, a 2.69 - percentage - point increase compared to the same period last year [6]. - In June, the import volume of syrup and premixed powder was 115,500 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 103,500 tons [6]. - Brazil has increased the mandatory ethanol blending ratio in gasoline from 27% to 30% and the biodiesel ratio in diesel from 14% to 15% [6]. - Trump stated that Coca - Cola has agreed to use sugar as a beverage additive in the US again, and PepsiCo is also willing to launch sugar - containing cola if there is consumer demand [7]. Bearish Factors - During the 2024/25 sugar season in Guangxi, the cumulative cane crushing volume was 485.954 billion tons, a year - on - year decrease of 258.47 billion tons, while the mixed - sugar production was 646.5 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 28.36 million tons, with a sugar production rate of 13.30%, a 1.22 - percentage - point increase [8]. - Analysis firm JOB predicts a 5% increase in Brazil's sugar production to 46 million tons during the 25/26 sugar season [8]. - Thailand's sugar production in the 24/25 sugar season is expected to reach 10.39 million tons [8]. - India's monsoon has arrived 3 - 4 days earlier than usual. The chairman of the federation expects a strong recovery in sugar production in the 2025/26 sugar season, with an estimated output of about 35 million tons [8]. - In June, China's sugar imports were 424,600 tons, a year - on - year increase of 397,000 tons, and the out - of - quota import profit window has opened [9]. - In the first half of July, the cane crushing volume in Brazil's central - southern region was 49.823 billion tons, a 14.77% year - on - year increase, and sugar production was 3.406 million tons, a 15.07% year - on - year increase [9]. - In July, Guangxi's single - month sugar sales were 355,500 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 217,800 tons, and Yunnan's industrial inventory was 467,300 tons, a year - on - year increase of 60,600 tons [9]. Price and Spread Information - Base - difference Changes: On August 14, 2025, the base - difference between Nanning and SR01 was 321, with a daily increase of 8 and a weekly decrease of 64. The base - difference between Kunming and SR01 was 201, with a daily increase of 3 and a weekly decrease of 44 [10]. - Futures Price and Spread: On August 15, 2025, the closing price of SR01 was 5664, with a daily increase of 0.09% and a weekly increase of 1.63%. The spread between SR01 and SR05 was 40, with a daily decrease of 11 and a weekly decrease of 2 [10]. - Spot Price and Regional Spread: On August 15, 2025, the spot price of sugar in Nanning was 5980, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 30. The price difference between Nanning and Liuzhou was - 20, with no daily or weekly change [11]. - Sugar Import Price Changes: On August 15, 2025, the in - quota import price of Brazilian sugar was 4561, with a daily increase of 9 and a weekly increase of 195. The out - of - quota import price was 5796, with a daily increase of 10 and a weekly increase of 253 [12].