JFL(SH:600901) KAIYUAN SECURITIES·2025-08-16 14:24Investment Rating - The investment rating for Jiangsu Jinzu (600901.SH) is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The revenue and profit growth for the first half of 2025 met expectations, with revenue and net profit at 3.006 billion and 1.564 billion yuan respectively, reflecting year-on-year increases of 15% and 9% [4] - The company is considered a high-quality, high-dividend investment target, with a current dividend yield of 4.62% and a dynamic dividend yield of 5.15% assuming a constant dividend payout ratio of 53% [4] - The company has a stable performance in terms of asset quality, with a non-performing loan ratio of 0.91% and a slight increase in the non-performing loan generation rate to 0.61% [6] Financial Performance Summary - For the first half of 2025, the annualized weighted average ROE was 12.68%, an increase from 12.60% in the first quarter [4] - The company forecasts net profits of 3.26 billion, 3.62 billion, and 4.03 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with a consistent year-on-year growth rate of 12% [4] - The company's revenue is projected to grow from 5.977 billion yuan in 2025 to 7.353 billion yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 10.5% [8][11] Business Model and Growth Strategy - Jiangsu Jinzu's business model, which includes "vendor leasing + regional direct sales + shareholder collaboration," has matured and is effective, with partnerships established with nearly 6,000 manufacturers and dealers [5] - The company has diversified its industry structure to mitigate cyclical fluctuations, focusing on high-end equipment, clean energy, and transportation sectors, which have shown significant growth [5] Valuation Metrics - The current price-to-book (PB) ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected at 1.3, 1.2, and 1.1 respectively, indicating a favorable valuation [4] - The earnings per share (EPS) for the next three years are estimated at 0.6 yuan for 2025, 0.6 yuan for 2026, and 0.7 yuan for 2027 [4]