CATL(SZ:300750) Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2025-08-16 14:35Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The suspension of Ningde Times' Jianxiakeng lithium mine has ignited the bullish sentiment. As the peak season approaches in the second half of the year, the market expects a significant supply shortage of domestic lithium carbonate. The improvement of the lithium salt supply - demand pattern depends on the substantial reduction in the mining end. Recently, the supply side will be the focus of the market. The emotional fluctuations brought by news are significantly greater than the actual changes in the fundamentals. The rise in lithium prices will drive the supply of hard - rock resources in Africa, Australia and other places to fill the gap of domestic mines. The extent of domestic lithium carbonate destocking remains to be observed. Currently, the uncertainty of capital gaming is high. It is recommended that speculative funds wait and see cautiously. Lithium carbonate holders can seize the entry point in a timely manner according to their own operations. In the future, attention should be paid to the industrial chain information and market atmosphere [12]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Period - spot Market: On August 15, the morning quotation of the Mysteel MMLC lithium carbonate spot index was 82,832 yuan, with a weekly increase of 18.62%. The average price of MMLC battery - grade lithium carbonate was 83,000 yuan. On the same day, the closing price of LC2511 on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 86,900 yuan, with a weekly increase of 12.92% [12][20]. - Supply: On August 14, the weekly output of domestic lithium carbonate was 19,980 tons, a 2.2% increase from the previous week. The output of lithium carbonate from spodumene reached a record high, the operating rate of salt - lake lithium carbonate rebounded, and the output of lithium carbonate from lepidolite declined. The output in August was slightly revised downwards. In June, China imported about 10,200 tons of lithium carbonate from Chile, and the overseas supply pressure was relatively small in July. In July 2025, the export volume of lithium carbonate from Chile was 20,900 tons, a 43% increase from the previous month and a 4% increase year - on - year. Among them, 13,600 tons were exported to China, a 33% increase from the previous month and a 13% decrease year - on - year [12][32][41]. - Demand: In July 2025, the global sales of new energy vehicles were about 1.6 million, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 25.1% from January to July. In July 2025, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in China were 1.243 million and 1.262 million respectively, with year - on - year increases of 26.3% and 27.4% respectively. From January to July 2025, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in China were 8.232 million and 8.22 million respectively, with year - on - year increases of 39.2% and 38.5% respectively. In July, the total production of power and other batteries in China was 133.8 GWh, a 3.6% increase from the previous month and a 44.3% increase year - on - year. From January to July, the cumulative production of power and other batteries in China was 831.1 GWh, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 57.5%. The production of lithium iron phosphate in July increased by about 3.1% from the previous month. It is expected that the month - on - month increase in the output of cathode materials will be slightly larger in August [12][48][57]. - Inventory: On August 14, the weekly inventory of domestic lithium carbonate was reported at 142,256 tons, a decrease of 162 tons (- 0.1%) from the previous week. On August 15, the registered warehouse receipts of lithium carbonate on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange were 23,485 tons, a 24.7% increase from the previous week [12][64]. - Cost: The ore price adjusted following the lithium salt price. On August 16, the quotation of SMM Australian imported SC6 lithium concentrate was 960 - 1,020 US dollars per ton, a 26.1% increase from the previous week and an 18.5% increase in the past month. The pressure on high - cost hard - rock mines overseas has eased [12][75]. 2. Period - spot Market - On August 15, the MMLC lithium carbonate spot index quoted 82,832 yuan in the morning, up 18.62% week - on - week. The average price of MMLC battery - grade lithium carbonate was 83,000 yuan. The closing price of LC2511 on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 86,900 yuan, up 12.92% week - on - week [20]. - The average discount of the exchange - standard electric carbon trading market is about - 450 yuan. The net short position of lithium carbonate contract holdings has increased [23]. - The price difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 2,300 yuan, and the price difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide is 8,660 yuan [26][27]. 3. Supply Side - On August 14, the weekly output of domestic lithium carbonate was 19,980 tons, a 2.2% increase from the previous week. The output of lithium carbonate from spodumene reached a record high, the operating rate of salt - lake lithium carbonate rebounded, and the output of lithium carbonate from lepidolite declined. The output in August was slightly revised downwards. In July 2025, the domestic lithium carbonate output was 81,530 tons, a 4.4% increase from the previous month and a 25.5% increase year - on - year, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 40.6% in the first seven months [32]. - In July, the output of lithium carbonate from spodumene was 44,810 tons, a 13.6% increase from the previous month and a 47.9% increase year - on - year, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 73.8% in the first seven months. The output of lithium carbonate from lepidolite in July was 18,000 tons, a 7.6% decrease from the previous month, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 21.0% in the first seven months [35]. - The output of salt - lake lithium carbonate in July decreased by 7.6% to 12,340 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 15.6% from January to July. Some salt - lake mines reduced production or stopped production, and the output of salt - lake lithium carbonate declined during the peak season. The output of recycled lithium carbonate in July increased by 9.8% to 6,380 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 17.4% from January to July [38]. - In June 2025, China imported 17,698 tons of lithium carbonate, a 16.3% decrease from the previous month and a 9.6% decrease year - on - year. Among them, 11,853 tons were imported from Chile and 5,094 tons from Argentina. The total import of lithium carbonate in China from January to June was about 118,000 tons, a 10.7% increase year - on - year. In June, Chile exported about 10,200 tons of lithium carbonate to China, and the overseas supply pressure was relatively small in July. In July 2025, the export volume of Chilean lithium carbonate was 20,900 tons, a 43% increase from the previous month and a 4% increase year - on - year. Among them, 13,600 tons were exported to China, a 33% increase from the previous month and a 13% decrease year - on - year [41]. 4. Demand Side - The battery field dominates lithium demand. In 2024, it accounted for 87% of global consumption. The main growth point of future lithium salt consumption still depends on the growth of the lithium - battery industry, while the traditional application fields have limited proportions and weak growth [45]. - In July 2025, the global sales of new energy vehicles were about 1.6 million, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 25.1% from January to July. In July 2025, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in China were 1.243 million and 1.262 million respectively, with year - on - year increases of 26.3% and 27.4% respectively. From January to July 2025, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in China were 8.232 million and 8.22 million respectively, with year - on - year increases of 39.2% and 38.5% respectively [48]. - The total sales of new energy vehicles in Europe from January to June were 1.191 million, a 24.8% increase compared to the previous year. The total sales of new energy vehicles in the United States from January to June were 761,000, a 6.4% increase compared to the previous year [51]. - In July, the total production of power and other batteries in China was 133.8 GWh, a 3.6% increase from the previous month and a 44.3% increase year - on - year. From January to July, the cumulative production of power and other batteries in China was 831.1 GWh, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 57.5%. The production of lithium iron phosphate in July increased by about 3.1% from the previous month. It is expected that the month - on - month increase in the output of cathode materials will be slightly larger in August [54][57]. 5. Inventory - On August 14, the weekly inventory of domestic lithium carbonate was reported at 142,256 tons, a decrease of 162 tons (- 0.1%) from the previous week. On August 15, the registered warehouse receipts of lithium carbonate on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange were 23,485 tons, a 24.7% increase from the previous week [64]. - The inventory cycle of cathode materials is about one week. The sales - to - inventory ratio of power batteries is at a recent median, and the inventory of energy - storage batteries is at a recent low due to the rush for exports [67]. 6. Cost Side - The ore price adjusted following the lithium salt price. On August 16, the quotation of SMM Australian imported SC6 lithium concentrate was 960 - 1,020 US dollars per ton, a 26.1% increase from the previous week and an 18.5% increase in the past month [75]. - In June, the domestic import of lithium concentrate was 428,000 tons, a 18.1% decrease year - on - year and a 17.2% decrease from the previous month. From January to June, the domestic import of lithium concentrate was 2.806 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 0.2%. In the first half of 2025, the import of lithium concentrate from Australia increased by 6.1% year - on - year, and the import from Africa decreased by 13.0% year - on - year. The supply pressure of high - cost hard - rock mines began to ease in July [78].