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株冶集团(600961):2025年半年报点评:贵金属板块有望量价齐升,助力业绩持续增长

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 16.48 CNY, based on a PE valuation of 16X for comparable companies [5][3]. Core Views - The precious metals sector is expected to see both volume and price increases, contributing to sustained performance growth for the company [11]. - The company reported a net profit of 585 million CNY for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 57.83%, aligning with market expectations [10]. - The company is actively enhancing its supply chain resilience and safety by advancing resource exploration projects, which are anticipated to improve production capacity significantly [10]. Financial Forecasts - The adjusted earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2025-2027 are 1.03 CNY, 1.21 CNY, and 1.33 CNY, respectively, reflecting slight upward revisions from previous estimates [3]. - Projected revenues for 2025 are 22,447 million CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 13.6% [4]. - The gross margin is expected to improve to 10.7% in 2025, with net profit margins projected at 4.9% [4]. Business Segment Performance - The precious metals segment is expected to contribute significantly to profits, with gold and silver bullion businesses accounting for nearly 40% of gross profit [10]. - The zinc smelting segment is also performing well, contributing approximately 12% to gross profit amid rising smelting fees [10]. Market Conditions - There is a growing expectation of interest rate cuts, which could lead to a new upward trend in precious metal prices, further enhancing the company's profitability [10].