Baosteel(SH:600019) Huachuang Securities·2025-08-17 05:16Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the steel industry, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities [6]. Core Viewpoints - The steel market is currently experiencing a seasonal downturn, with demand showing weakness due to high temperatures and rainfall affecting consumption [3]. - Despite stable production levels, there is potential for supply contraction in the coming week due to environmental regulations impacting steel production in certain regions [3]. - The report highlights a significant improvement in industry profitability in the first half of the year, driven by lower raw material prices and enhancements in production processes [4]. - The concept of "anti-involution" is expected to reshape the industry landscape, providing both short-term and long-term investment logic [4]. Industry Key Data Tracking Production Data - As of August 15, the total production of five major steel products reached 8.7163 million tons, with a week-on-week increase of 24,000 tons [2]. - The average daily pig iron output from 247 steel enterprises was 2.4066 million tons, reflecting a slight increase of 3,400 tons week-on-week [2]. Consumption Data - The total consumption of the five major steel products was 8.3102 million tons, showing a week-on-week decrease of 147,200 tons [2]. - The apparent consumption of rebar, wire rod, hot-rolled, cold-rolled, and medium plate experienced varied changes, with rebar consumption decreasing by 208,500 tons [2]. Inventory Situation - Total steel inventory reached 14.1597 million tons, with a week-on-week increase of 406,100 tons [2]. - Social inventory rose by 283,400 tons to 9.9084 million tons, while steel mill inventory increased by 122,700 tons to 4.2513 million tons [2]. Profitability Situation - The average pig iron cost for 114 steel mills was reported at 2,321 yuan per ton, with a week-on-week increase of 3 yuan [2]. - As of August 15, the gross profit per ton for rebar, hot-rolled, and cold-rolled products was +121 yuan, +151 yuan, and +59 yuan respectively, indicating a week-on-week decrease for rebar and hot-rolled products [2]. - Approximately 65.8% of the sampled steel enterprises were profitable, reflecting a week-on-week decline of 2.6 percentage points [2].