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投资策略周报:中期A股市场仍有充足空间和机会-20250817

Market Review - The global stock indices experienced a broad increase, with the Shenzhen Component Index leading the global markets. The A-share market continued to strengthen, with overall investor risk appetite rising. The trading volume in both A-share markets and margin financing balances exceeded 20 trillion yuan. The Shanghai Composite Index recorded an "eight consecutive days of gains" and briefly surpassed 3700 points, reaching a nearly four-year high. The technology sector maintained strong performance, with significant gains in growth sectors such as AI, semiconductors, and robotics, leading to an 8.58% increase in the ChiNext Index and a 5.53% increase in the Sci-Tech 50 Index [1][2]. Market Outlook - The mid-term outlook for the A-share market remains optimistic, with ample space and opportunities. Firstly, despite increasing global trade uncertainties, the resilience of the Chinese economy is gaining broader international recognition. Following the tariff shock on April 7, high-risk preference funds have entered the A-share market. Secondly, households have accumulated substantial excess savings, indicating a potential influx of funds. As of the first half of 2025, household deposits deviated upwards from the trend line of 2011-2019 by over 50 trillion yuan, suggesting a large pool of potential incremental funds for the stock market. Thirdly, a new bull market has elevated household risk appetite, yet the ratios of total A-share market value to household deposits and circulating market value to household deposits remain at historically low levels, indicating that the migration of household deposits into the stock market is still in its early stages. Once market vitality is further stimulated, it will lead to a positive feedback effect of "household funds entering the market and gradual stock market growth" [2][4]. Industry Allocation - The report suggests focusing on the following areas for industry allocation: 1) New technologies and growth directions, such as domestic computing power, robotics, solid-state batteries, and pharmaceuticals; 2) Sectors benefiting from liquidity easing in the stock market, particularly large financial institutions. Thematic investments should pay attention to self-controllable technologies, military industry, low-altitude economy, and marine technology [2][4].