Guotai Haitong Securities(SH:601211) Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2025-08-17 11:42Report Information - Report Title: Fuel Oil and Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil Weekly Report [1] - Report Date: August 17, 2025 [1] - Analyst: Liang Kefang [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - This week, fuel oil prices continued to decline until a rebound over the weekend. Middle East high-sulfur fuel oil exports have been increasing in August, while imports in the Middle East and China remain low due to weak power generation and refining demand, resulting in weak high-sulfur prices in Asia. In the low-sulfur market, short-term spot supplies in the Asia-Pacific region are still abundant. Kuwait and Indonesia have increased their low-sulfur exports to the Asia-Pacific this month, and Japanese refineries are gradually resuming production, which will further increase spot supplies and suppress spot prices in the Asia-Pacific. In the domestic market, the newly issued export quotas are the core factor affecting the market trend. If the quota is too low, it may support short-term prices; if the quota increases significantly year-on-year, it means that future port spot supplies will remain abundant, and the prices of near-month contracts will continue to be suppressed [4]. - Valuation: FU: 2650 - 2800; LU: 3400 - 3500 [4]. - Strategies: 1) Unilateral: Follow crude oil and remain weak in the short term. 2) Inter - term: The contango structure of the near - end of FU and LU will continue. 3) Inter - variety: The FU crack spread has fallen to the historical average but may still have a small downward space; the LU - FU spread will remain high in the short term [4]. Summary by Directory Supply - Refinery Operation: The report presents data on the capacity utilization rates of Chinese refineries (crude oil: atmospheric and vacuum distillation), independent refineries, and major refineries over the years [6]. - Global Refinery Maintenance: Data on the maintenance volumes of global CDU, hydrocracking, FCC, and coking units from 2018 to 2025 are provided [9][11][13][14]. - Domestic Refinery Fuel Oil Production and Commercial Volume: Data on the monthly production of fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, and domestic commercial volume of fuel oil in China from 2018 to 2025 are shown [20]. Demand - Domestic and Foreign Fuel Oil Demand Data: Data on the monthly actual consumption of marine fuel oil in China, the sales volume of fuel oil for ship supply in Singapore, and the apparent consumption of fuel oil in China from 2018 to 2025 are presented [23]. Inventory - Global Fuel Oil Spot Inventory: Data on the spot inventories of fuel oil in Singapore, European ARA, Fujairah, and the United States from 2018 to 2025 are provided [27][29][30]. Price and Spread - Asia - Pacific Regional Spot FOB Prices: Data on the FOB prices of 3.5% and 0.5% fuel oil in Fujairah, Singapore, and other places from 2018 to 2025 are presented [35][36][37]. - European Regional Spot FOB Prices: Data on the FOB prices of 3.5% and 1% fuel oil in the Mediterranean, Northwest Europe, and other places from 2018 to 2025 are provided [39][40][42]. - US Regional Fuel Oil Spot Prices: Data on the spot prices of 3.5% and 0.5% fuel oil in the US Gulf, New York Harbor, and other places from 2018 to 2025 are presented [45]. - Paper and Derivative Prices: Data on the prices of high - sulfur and low - sulfur swaps in Northwest Europe, Singapore low - sulfur fuel oil swaps, and Singapore 380 bunker fuel swaps are provided [48]. - Fuel Oil Spot Spread: Data on the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore and the viscosity spread in Singapore from 2018 to 2025 are presented [57][59]. - Global Fuel Oil Crack Spread: Data on the crack spreads of high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore and Northwest Europe from 2019 to 2025 are provided [61][63][64]. - Global Fuel Oil Paper Month Spread: Data on the month spreads of high - and low - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore and Northwest Europe from 2023 to 2025 are presented [68][69]. Import and Export - Domestic Fuel Oil Import and Export Data: Data on the monthly import and export volumes of fuel oil (excluding biodiesel) in China from 2018 to 2025 are presented [73][75]. - Global High - Sulfur Fuel Oil Import and Export Data: Data on the weekly changes in the import and export volumes of global high - sulfur fuel oil in different regions from 2018 to 2025 are presented [78]. - Global Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil Import and Export Data: Data on the weekly changes in the import and export volumes of global low - sulfur fuel oil in different regions from 2018 to 2025 are presented [80]. Futures Market Indicators and Internal - External Spreads - Spot Market Internal - External Spreads: Data on the internal - external spreads of 380 spot, 0.5% spot, FU, and LU against the Singapore market from 2021 to 2025 are presented [83][87][90]. - Analysis of Spreads: This week, both domestic and foreign spot and futures prices generally declined. The weakness of FU led to a narrowing of its premium over the external market. For low - sulfur fuel oil, due to increased production and exports from domestic refineries and poor bunker demand, the number of domestic warehouse receipts remained high, and LU weakened compared with the previous period, resulting in a gradual decline in its premium over Singapore spot [84]. - FU and LU Position and Volume Changes: Data on the trading volumes and open interests of fuel oil main - continuous, low - sulfur fuel oil continuous, and their corresponding first - month contracts from 2020 to 2025 are presented [94][96][99]. - FU and LU Warehouse Receipt Quantity Changes: Data on the quantity changes of FU and LU warehouse receipts from 2020 to 2025 are presented [105][106].