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石头科技(688169):公司信息更新报告:2025Q2主业利润率拐点已现超预期,期待新品+新品类+新市场持续增量

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The company has shown an unexpected turning point in its main business profit margin, with expectations for continuous revenue growth driven by new products, new categories, and new markets [5][6] - The company reported a revenue of 4.48 billion yuan in Q2 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 73.8%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 410 million yuan, down 43.2% [5] - The report anticipates an improvement in profitability starting from Q3 2025, with a projected net profit of 2.02 billion yuan for 2025, reflecting a slight increase from previous estimates [5][6] Financial Summary - For Q2 2025, the company achieved a gross margin of 43.9%, a decrease of 8.0% year-on-year, primarily due to increased tariffs in North America and a higher proportion of lower-margin products [7] - The company expects to see a significant increase in sales of its sweeping and washing machines, with domestic sales projected to grow approximately 50% and 250% respectively [6] - The forecast for 2025-2027 indicates net profits of 2.02 billion, 3.08 billion, and 3.92 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 7.79, 11.87, and 15.12 yuan [5][9] Market Performance - The company has seen a significant increase in market share for its washing machines, with online sales in China reaching a market share of 23.2%, up 20.1 percentage points [6] - In the European market, the company expects a growth of over 50%, with market share in Germany projected to reach 40% [6] - The North American market is anticipated to grow by over 30%, with expectations of a recovery in growth rates as tariff impacts diminish [6]