Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is experiencing pressure on distribution channels and a decline in profitability, with a significant drop in revenue and net profit in the first half of 2025 compared to the previous year [4][6] - The company is undergoing a transformation period, with fluctuations in revenue and performance, but is expected to return to a growth trajectory as channel adjustments are completed and new products are launched [9] Financial Performance Summary - In H1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 945 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 9.3%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 75 million yuan, down 55.2% year-on-year [4] - The second quarter of 2025 saw revenue of 441 million yuan, a decline of 3.4% year-on-year, and a net profit of 22 million yuan, down 71.0% year-on-year [4] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 5.8 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 53 million yuan, with a payout ratio of 71.22% [4] Product and Channel Performance - The company’s product performance in H1 2025 showed mixed results, with revenue from green peas at 234 million yuan (down 1.56%), sunflower seeds at 125 million yuan (down 9.51%), and broad beans at 125 million yuan (up 2.11%) [6] - E-commerce revenue increased by 12.42% to 153 million yuan, while direct sales and other models surged by 154.63% to 83 million yuan, indicating strong growth in these channels despite a 19.84% decline in distribution revenue [6] Cost and Profitability Analysis - The gross margin for H1 2025 was 33.61%, a decrease of 1.33 percentage points year-on-year, with Q2 gross margin at 32.79%, down 1.57 percentage points [6] - Rising raw material costs, particularly for palm oil, have pressured profit margins, alongside increased sales and management expense ratios [6] Future Earnings Forecast - The company’s revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 2.236 billion yuan, 2.486 billion yuan, and 2.813 billion yuan, respectively, with expected year-on-year growth rates of -1%, +11%, and +13% [9] - Net profit forecasts for the same period are 235 million yuan, 324 million yuan, and 379 million yuan, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of -37%, +38%, and +17% [9]
甘源食品(002991):2025半年报点评:经销渠道承压,盈利能力下滑