Guotai Haitong Securities(SH:601211) Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2025-08-17 15:21Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Core Viewpoints - For aluminum, the price continues to oscillate within a narrow range, and the low - volatility state persists. There is no need to overly worry about the inventory accumulation before the traditional peak season. The core strategy is to wait for buying opportunities during price corrections, and there will be opportunities to re - enter long positions for volatility. [3][5] - For alumina, although the price rose significantly due to news from Shanxi mines during the week, the actual impact is limited, and the price may reach a certain equilibrium at the 3000 - 3200 platform level. The supply side still has multiple uncertainties, and the inventory is continuously accumulating. [6] Summary by Directory 1. Trading End - Term Spread: The spot premium of A00 aluminum strengthened, while the spot premium of alumina weakened. The average spot premium of SMM A00 aluminum changed from - 50 yuan/ton to 0 yuan/ton, and the average spot premium of SMM A00 aluminum (Foshan) changed from - 55 yuan/ton to - 50 yuan/ton. The spot premium of Shandong alumina for the current month changed from 51 yuan/ton to 36 yuan/ton, and that of Henan alumina changed from 71 yuan/ton to 56 yuan/ton. [11] - Monthly Spread: The monthly spread of SHFE aluminum remained stable. [12] - Position and Volume: The position of the SHFE aluminum main contract decreased slightly, and the trading volume increased slightly. The position and trading volume of the alumina main contract increased significantly, with the position reaching a historical high. [14] - Position - to - Inventory Ratio: The position - to - inventory ratio of SHFE aluminum declined, and that of alumina continued to fall and is at a historically low level. [19] 2. Inventory - Bauxite: As of August 15, the port inventory of imported bauxite decreased by 800,000 tons week - on - week, and the port inventory days remained basically the same. As of July, the port inventory and port inventory days of bauxite in China continued to accumulate according to the阿拉丁口径. In July, the bauxite inventory of 43 sample enterprises in China increased by 1.19 million tons month - on - month, and the inventory days in alumina plants continued to decline. As of August 15, the weekly shipping volume from Guinea ports and the floating inventory both decreased. As of August 8, the shipping volume from Australian and Guinean ports and the arrival volume of bauxite all decreased. [24][29][30] - Alumina: The total alumina inventory continued to accumulate, with an increase of 55,000 tons week - on - week. The inventory in alumina plants increased slightly, the inventory in electrolytic aluminum plants increased slightly, the port inventory accumulated, and the inventory at stations/on - the - way decreased. As of August 14, the national alumina inventory was 3.375 million tons, an increase of 90,000 tons week - on - week. The inventory in alumina plants decreased by 37,000 tons, the inventory in electrolytic aluminum plants increased by 33,000 tons, the port inventory increased by 46,000 tons, and the inventory at yards/stations/on - the - way increased by 48,000 tons. [44][50] - Electrolytic Aluminum: The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum continued to accumulate. As of August 14, the weekly inventory increased by 22,000 tons to 571,000 tons. [51] - Processed Products: The spot and in - plant inventories of aluminum rods decreased slightly, and the shipping volume declined. As of July, the finished - product inventory ratio of SMM aluminum profiles remained basically flat, while the raw - material inventory ratio decreased significantly. The finished - product inventory ratio of SMM aluminum sheets, strips, and foils decreased slightly, and the raw - material inventory ratio also decreased significantly. [57][59] 3. Production - Bauxite: The domestic bauxite supply remained stable. As of July, the domestic bauxite production increased slightly according to the SMM caliber. Imported bauxite is an important factor driving the growth of the total domestic bauxite supply. In July, the bauxite production in Shanxi increased slightly according to the steel union caliber but decreased slightly according to the SMM caliber. The bauxite production in Henan increased slightly according to the steel union caliber but decreased according to the SMM caliber. The bauxite production in Guangxi increased slightly according to the steel union caliber and increased according to the SMM caliber. [64][69] - Alumina: The alumina capacity utilization rate remained stable. As of August 15, the total operating capacity of alumina in China was 95.7 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 100,000 tons. The domestic metallurgical - grade alumina production this week was 1.849 million tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons week - on - week, still at a high level in recent years. The short - term supply - abundant pattern of alumina fundamentals has not changed, and the alumina price may continue to be under pressure. [73] - Electrolytic Aluminum: As of July, the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum remained at a high level, and the capacity utilization rate remained high due to profit restoration. As of August 14, the weekly production of electrolytic aluminum was 847,900 tons, an increase of 2,000 tons week - on - week, maintaining a high level in the past six years. As the terminal consumption enters the off - season, the proportion of molten aluminum has decreased seasonally, and the ingot - casting volume of aluminum ingots is expected to continue to increase, which may bring supply pressure. [77] - Downstream Processing: The production of aluminum sheets, strips, and foils decreased slightly this week. The production of recycled aluminum rods decreased, and the production of aluminum rods increased slightly. The operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream leading enterprises increased slightly, with the operating rates of aluminum sheets, strips, and foils increasing. The operating rate of primary aluminum alloys increased slightly, the operating rate of aluminum profiles increased, the operating rate of aluminum cables and wires increased slightly, and the operating rate of recycled aluminum alloys remained unchanged. [80][84][91] 4. Profit - Alumina: The smelting profit of alumina remained at a good level. This week, the profit of metallurgical - grade alumina decreased slightly, with the profit at 415.5 yuan/ton according to the steel union caliber. The profits of alumina in Shandong, Shanxi, and Henan remained stable, and the profit in Guangxi was better than that in other regions. [93] - Electrolytic Aluminum: The profit of electrolytic aluminum remained at a high level, but the complex global macro - economic situation, overseas geopolitical conflicts, and changing trade policies have increased uncertain factors, interfering with market expectations. [102] - Downstream Processing: The processing fee of aluminum rods remained unchanged week - on - week, and the downstream processing profit remained at a low level. [103] 5. Consumption - Import Profit and Loss: The import profit and loss of alumina and SHFE aluminum widened. [111] - Export: In July 2025, the export of un - wrought aluminum and aluminum products increased slightly, with a month - on - month increase of 52,000 tons. The export profit and loss of aluminum processed products showed a divergence, and the export demand for aluminum products was hindered by trade policy adjustments, awaiting market games, which may drag down the demand side. [113][115] - Absolute Consumption Volume: The transaction area of commercial housing decreased, and the automobile production decreased month - on - month. [121]