Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to the company for the first time, with a target price range of HKD 13.40 - 14.30, indicating a potential upside of 32.3% from the latest closing price of HKD 10.47 [7]. Core Insights - The company is a leading player in the Chinese casual dining sector, focusing on cost-effective dining experiences. It has successfully expanded its presence across various provinces, particularly in East China, and aims to continue this trend [1][15]. - The Chinese casual dining market is projected to reach approximately RMB 3.9 trillion by 2025, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8.9% from 2023 to 2028, indicating significant growth potential in the sector [2]. - The company has demonstrated strong revenue growth, with a reported revenue of RMB 5.21 billion in 2024, representing a 14.5% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of RMB 580 million, up 9.1% [1][39]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company operates a direct sales model and emphasizes high cost-performance, with an average dining price of RMB 59.2 in 2024. As of the end of 2024, it has 667 stores, with over 80% located in East China [1][24]. Growth Drivers - The growth strategy includes expanding store numbers, improving single-store efficiency, and incubating sub-brands. The company plans to add 130, 160, and 180 new stores in 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, aiming for a total of 1,809 stores by 2030 [3][4]. - The average revenue per mature store is estimated at RMB 9 million, with a net profit margin of approximately 14.5% [3]. Financial Projections - The company forecasts net profits of RMB 7.7 billion, RMB 9.4 billion, and RMB 11.2 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 32%, 22%, and 19% [4][5]. - The financial metrics indicate a robust growth trajectory, with a revenue CAGR of 25.3% and a net profit CAGR of 35.9% from 2021 to 2024 [39]. Market Positioning - The company maintains a competitive edge through a strong supply chain and a unique partnership model, which supports rapid store expansion and operational efficiency [3][19]. - The casual dining market remains fragmented, with the top five players holding less than 1% market share, suggesting opportunities for brands that can effectively tap into lower-tier markets and enhance online presence [2][4].
小菜园（00999）：中式大众餐饮赛道龙头，全国化扩张验证进行时