Nanhua Futures(SH:603093) Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-08-18 02:55Report Overview - Report Name: Nanhua Futures Tin Risk Management Daily Report - Date: August 18, 2025 - Research Team: Nanhua Non-ferrous Metals Research Team [1] Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Tin prices declined slightly on Thursday, fluctuating with the non-ferrous metals sector. Recently, macro factors have had limited impact. On the supply side, the repeated postponement of the full resumption of production in Myanmar's tin mines has significantly supported tin prices and may have a continuous impact. According to Alphamin's financial report, the impact of the production cut at the Bisie tin mine exceeded expectations, driving up short-term tin prices. There has been no significant change in demand [3]. Summary by Category Price and Volatility - The latest closing price of tin is 266,820 yuan/ton, with a monthly price range forecast of 245,000 - 263,000 yuan/ton. The current volatility is 14.36%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility is 26.1% [2]. Risk Management Recommendations - Inventory Management: For high finished product inventory and concerns about price drops, sell 75% of the Shanghai Tin main futures contract at around 275,000 yuan/ton and sell 25% of the SN2510C275000 call option when the volatility is appropriate [2]. - Raw Material Management: For low raw material inventory and concerns about price increases, buy 50% of the Shanghai Tin main futures contract at around 230,000 yuan/ton and sell 25% of the SN2510P245000 put option when the volatility is appropriate [2]. Market Factors - Likely Positive Factors: Sino-US tariff policy easing, the semiconductor sector remaining in the expansion cycle, and the resumption of production in Myanmar falling short of expectations [7]. - Likely Negative Factors: Repeated tariff policies, the inflow of Myanmar's tin mines into China, and the slowdown of the semiconductor sector's expansion speed, gradually moving from the expansion cycle to the contraction cycle [5]. Futures and Spot Data - Futures Data: The latest prices of Shanghai Tin main, continuous first, and continuous third contracts are 266,820 yuan/ton, 266,820 yuan/ton, and 267,360 yuan/ton respectively, with no daily change. The LME tin 3M price is 33,610 US dollars/ton, up 175 US dollars or 0.52% daily. The Shanghai-London ratio is 8.06, up 0.04 or 0.5% [6]. - Spot Data: The latest prices of Shanghai Nonferrous tin ingots, 1 tin premium, 40% tin concentrate, 60% tin concentrate, solder bars (60A and 63A), and lead-free solder have weekly declines ranging from -0.58% to -0.78% [13]. Import and Processing Data - The latest tin import profit and loss is -16,161.2 yuan/ton, down 2.1% daily. The processing fees for 40% and 60% tin ore remain unchanged [15]. Inventory Data - The latest total warehouse receipt quantity of tin in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 7,426 tons, up 0.05% daily. The LME tin inventory is 1,830 tons, up 2.81% daily [17].