南华期货铁合金周报：供应压力逐渐增大-20250818

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests a "wait-and-see" approach [5] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short term, the price trend of ferroalloys mainly follows the price fluctuations of coking coal. The current good profit situation of steel mills and high hot metal production support ferroalloy demand. However, in the long - term fundamental aspect, the real estate market is continuously sluggish, and the support from the home appliance and automobile industries for steel depends on policy stimulus and cannot be sustained for a long time. The supply of manganese ore is relatively sufficient, and the support from the ore end for ferromanganese is insufficient. The market is in a game between strong expectations and weak reality, and there is still pressure on ferroalloys [4][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Spot Market - For ferrosilicon, the price in Inner Mongolia's main production area is 5,550 yuan/ton (unchanged), and in Ningxia it is 5,600 yuan/ton (+100 yuan/ton). In trading areas, the price in Hebei and Tianjin is 5,900 yuan/ton (unchanged). For ferromanganese, in the northern production area of Inner Mongolia, the market price is 5,800 yuan/ton (unchanged), in the southern production area of Guangxi it is 5,900 yuan/ton (+30 yuan/ton), and in the trading area of Jiangsu it is 5,900 yuan/ton (-50 yuan/ton) [2] 3.2 Cost and Profit - The price of small - sized semi - coke in Shaanxi is 630 yuan/ton (+35 yuan/ton). The production cost of ferrosilicon in Ningxia is 5,352 yuan/ton, and that of ferromanganese in Ningxia is 5,942.08 yuan/ton (+23.24 yuan/ton). The profit of ferrosilicon in Inner Mongolia's production area is - 49 yuan/ton (unchanged), and in Ningxia it is 98 yuan/ton (+50 yuan/ton). The profit of ferromanganese in the northern region is - 58.5 yuan/ton (+39.64 yuan/ton), and in the southern region is - 417.15 yuan/ton (+8.71 yuan/ton) [2] 3.3 Supply - The weekly operating rate of ferrosilicon production enterprises is 36.18%, a week - on - week increase of 1.86%, and the weekly output is 112,800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.39%. The weekly operating rate of ferromanganese production enterprises is 45.75%, a week - on - week increase of 2.32%, and the weekly output is 207,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 5.77%. Driven by profits, the supply of ferroalloys is gradually increasing, reaching a high level in the same period of the past five years, with relatively large supply pressure [3] 3.4 Demand - Steel mills have good profits, and high hot metal production supports the demand for ferrosilicon and ferromanganese. However, the inventory accumulation of five major steel products restricts the further production space of steel mills, and the growth space for ferrosilicon and ferromanganese is limited. The steel billet inventory of rebar is at the highest level in the same period of the past five years, with relatively large billet pressure. In July, the production of magnesium metal was 81,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.5%. In the long term, the real estate market is sluggish, and the market has doubts about the growth of terminal steel demand. The demand for ferromanganese is relatively weak. This week, the demand for five major steel products of ferrosilicon is 20,300 tons, unchanged from the previous week, and that of ferromanganese is 125,400 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.16% [3] 3.5 Inventory - This week, the inventory of ferrosilicon enterprises is 65,200 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 9.19%, the warehouse receipt inventory of ferrosilicon is 104,600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 6.52%, and the total inventory of ferrosilicon is 169,800 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.12%. The inventory of ferromanganese enterprises is 158,800 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.67%, the warehouse receipt inventory of ferromanganese is 374,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.63%, and the total inventory of ferromanganese is 532,800 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.64% [3]