汤臣倍健（300146）：25年中报点评：25Q2收入降幅收窄，期待下半年企稳向好

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" [6] Core Views - The company experienced a narrowing decline in revenue in Q2 2025, with a year-on-year decrease of 11.5% [2] - The company is expected to stabilize and improve in the second half of 2025, driven by product launches and optimized marketing strategies [12] Revenue Breakdown - In H1 2025, the company achieved total revenue of 35.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 23.4%, with a net profit of 7.4 billion yuan, down 17.3% [1] - For Q2 2025, the company reported revenue of 17.4 billion yuan, with a net profit of 2.8 billion yuan, reflecting a significant increase of 71.4% year-on-year [1][5] - Domestic and international revenue for H1 2025 was 28.4 billion yuan and 6.9 billion yuan, respectively, showing a decline of 28.2% and an increase of 5.3% year-on-year [3] Brand Performance - The main brands,汤臣倍健 and LSG, contributed significantly to revenue, with汤臣倍健 generating 18.9 billion yuan in H1 2025, down 28.3% year-on-year [4] - LSG brand revenue in H1 2025 was 5.3 billion yuan, up 4.5% year-on-year, indicating strong performance in cross-border e-commerce and local markets [3][5] Channel Analysis - Revenue from offline and online channels in H1 2025 was 18.0 billion yuan and 16.8 billion yuan, respectively, with declines of 31.6% and 13.8% year-on-year [4] - In Q2 2025, offline and online channels generated 8.1 billion yuan and 9.2 billion yuan, with year-on-year declines of 10.7% and 12.1% [11] Profitability Metrics - The gross margin for H1 2025 was 68.6%, remaining stable year-on-year, while the net margin improved to 21.6%, up 2.5 percentage points [11] - For Q2 2025, the gross margin was 68.4%, an increase of 1.7 percentage points year-on-year, and the net margin rose to 17.1%, up 8.9 percentage points [11] Future Outlook - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 62.9 billion yuan, 66.4 billion yuan, and 70.1 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with expected growth rates of -8.1%, +5.6%, and +5.5% [12] - Net profit forecasts for the same period are 8.0 billion yuan, 9.3 billion yuan, and 10.6 billion yuan, with growth rates of +22.0%, +16.5%, and +14.6% [12]