百亚股份（003006）：线下渠道稳增，电商有望重回较快增长

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5][6]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 1.764 billion RMB for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 15.1%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 188 million RMB, up 4.6% year-on-year. The second quarter revenue was 768 million RMB, with a slight increase of 0.2% year-on-year, while net profit decreased by 25.5% due to short-term public sentiment affecting online channel revenue and operating profit [1][2]. - The company is focusing on optimizing its online channel operations, which are expected to return to a growth trajectory starting in the third quarter. Offline performance remains robust, with a steady national expansion and improving profitability [1][2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company's revenue from sanitary napkins was 1.687 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 20.5%. The product structure is continuously optimized, with health series products expected to account for over 50% of revenue, up more than 8 percentage points year-on-year. Revenue from diapers and ODM decreased by 34.0% and 43.1% respectively [2]. - Offline revenue increased by 39.8% in the first half of 2025, with significant growth in regions such as Sichuan, Chongqing, and surrounding provinces [2]. Profitability and Cost Management - The company's gross margin for the first half of 2025 was 53.2%, a decrease of 1.2 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to logistics and packaging costs being included in the e-commerce channel. The operating expense ratio was 40.7%, up 0.5 percentage points year-on-year, with sales expenses increasing due to heightened marketing efforts in response to public sentiment [3]. - The net profit margin for the first half of 2025 was 10.7%, down 1.0 percentage points year-on-year. However, with a lower base for net profit margin in the second half of the year, a faster growth in net profit is anticipated [3]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company’s net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 are 372 million RMB, 487 million RMB, and 657 million RMB, with year-on-year growth rates of 29%, 31%, and 35% respectively. The corresponding EPS estimates are 0.87 RMB, 1.13 RMB, and 1.53 RMB [4]. - The target price is set at 34.80 RMB, based on a 40 times PE ratio for 2025, reflecting the company's strong competitive advantage in offline channels and the expected recovery of online sales [4].