Nanhua Futures(SH:603093) Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-08-18 11:49Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views - The supply side of asphalt remains stable, while the demand side is affected by rainfall and capital shortages, resulting in a failure to effectively release demand. The short - term peak season shows no over - expected performance, and the overall fundamentals are weakening month - on - month. [2] - In the medium and long term, demand is expected to improve as construction conditions get better in autumn, and the capital situation will be alleviated with the accelerated debt resolution of local governments in 2025. However, the peak season is not as prosperous as expected. [2] - The cost - side supply tightness expectation of asphalt is relieved due to the expected relaxation of US sanctions on Russia and OPEC's production increase. [2] 3. Content Summaries by Related Aspects a. Price and Volatility - The price range forecast of the asphalt main contract for the month is 3400 - 3750, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 22.30% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 8.95%. [1] b. Risk Management Strategies - Inventory Management: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory, to prevent inventory losses, they can short sell the bu2509 asphalt futures with a 25% hedging ratio at the price range of 3650 - 3750. [1] - Procurement Management: For enterprises with low regular procurement inventory, to prevent the increase of procurement costs due to rising asphalt prices, they can buy the bu2509 asphalt futures with a 50% hedging ratio at the price range of 3300 - 3400. [1] c. Market Data - Spot Prices: On August 18, 2025, the Shandong spot price was 3580 yuan/ton (down 40 yuan/day and 100 yuan/week), the Yangtze River Delta spot price was 3730 yuan/ton (unchanged), the North China spot price was 3680 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the South China spot price was 3520 yuan/ton (unchanged). [7] - Basis and Crack Spreads: The Shandong spot 09 basis was 81 yuan/ton (down 42 yuan/day and 87 yuan/week), and the Shandong spot crack spread to Brent was 150.0877 yuan/barrel (down 6.8268 yuan/day and 7.7282 yuan/week). The futures main contract crack spread to Brent was 131.5458 yuan/barrel (up 2.1841 yuan/day and 8.2143 yuan/week). [7] d. Factors Affecting the Market - Positive Factors: Low pressure on asphalt factories' warehouses, seasonal peak demand, low - level start - up with the expectation of catch - up construction in the South, and strong expectation of capacity reduction due to the "anti - involution" atmosphere. [6] - Negative Factors: An increase in the arrival of Ma Rui crude oil, the drag on demand by the short - term plum rain season in the South, slow destocking of social warehouses and weakening basis, and the potential increase in the start - up rate due to the consumption tax reform in Shandong. [6]