HUAYOU COBALT(SH:603799) Guoxin Securities·2025-08-18 13:04Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][18]. Core Viewpoints - The company achieved record-high operating performance in the first half of the year, with revenue of 37.197 billion yuan, up 23.78% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.711 billion yuan, up 62.26% year-on-year [1][8]. - The company continues to strengthen its overseas layout and enhance its integrated advantages, with significant projects underway in Indonesia and Africa [2][16]. - The company is expected to see revenue growth of 22.1% in 2025, with net profit growth of 46.0%, reflecting its strong position in the lithium battery materials industry [3][18]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, the company reported revenue of 19.355 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 28.28% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 8.48%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.459 billion yuan, up 27.04% year-on-year and 16.51% quarter-on-quarter [1][8]. - The company’s cash flow from operating activities was 1.618 billion yuan, down 41.45% year-on-year [14]. Product Sales - The company’s cobalt product shipment was approximately 20,800 tons, down 9.89% year-on-year due to tight raw material supply. Nickel product shipments were approximately 139,400 tons, up 83.91% year-on-year, which was a key driver for Q2 performance [12][16]. - The shipment of ternary precursor materials was about 42,100 tons, showing a decline due to the company’s strategy to reduce low-margin product shipments. However, the shipment of ternary cathode materials increased by 17.68% year-on-year [12][16]. Overseas Expansion - The company has initiated the construction of a 120,000-ton nickel metal project in Indonesia in collaboration with Vale and Ford, and is progressing with a 60,000-ton project [2][16]. - In Africa, the Arcadia lithium mine project has increased its resource reserves from 1.5 million tons to 2.45 million tons, with a planned 50,000-ton lithium sulfate project expected to be completed by the end of the year [2][16]. Profit Forecast - The company’s revenue forecast for 2025-2027 is adjusted to 74.439 billion yuan, 81.159 billion yuan, and 89.137 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 6.067 billion yuan, 7.006 billion yuan, and 8.294 billion yuan [3][19]. - The diluted EPS is projected to be 3.57 yuan, 4.12 yuan, and 4.87 yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [3][19].