Yanghe(SZ:002304) SINOLINK SECURITIES·2025-08-18 14:53Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [5][14]. Core Insights - The company reported a significant decline in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, with revenue at 14.8 billion yuan, down 35.3% year-on-year, and net profit at 4.34 billion yuan, down 45.3% [2]. - The sales volume of liquor decreased by 32.4% to 78,000 tons in the first half of 2025, with an average price per ton of 186,000 yuan, down 4.6% [3]. - The company has adopted a strategy of controlling volume and stabilizing prices for its leading products, which has helped maintain a relatively stable gross margin [3]. - The company’s net profit margin for Q2 2025 decreased by 9.6 percentage points to 18.9%, with a gross margin of 73.3% [4]. Summary by Sections Performance Review - In H1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 14.8 billion yuan, a decrease of 35.3% year-on-year, and a net profit of 4.34 billion yuan, down 45.3% [2]. Operational Analysis - The company’s liquor sales volume fell by 32.4% to 78,000 tons in H1 2025, with revenue from mid-to-high-end liquor and ordinary liquor at 12.67 billion yuan and 1.84 billion yuan, respectively [3]. - The company’s gross margins for mid-to-high-end and ordinary liquor were 80.3% and 46.2%, reflecting a slight increase and decrease, respectively [3]. - Regional performance showed that domestic sales outperformed external sales, with domestic revenue at 7.12 billion yuan, down 25.8%, and external revenue at 7.39 billion yuan, down 42.7% [3]. Profitability Forecast - The company forecasts revenues for 2025 to decline by 30%, followed by growth of 7.6% in 2026 and 7.0% in 2027 [5]. - The expected net profit for 2025 is projected at 3.75 billion yuan, with earnings per share (EPS) of 2.49 yuan [5].