Yanghe(SZ:002304) Guoxin Securities·2025-08-19 02:37Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Neutral" [6][16][22] Core Views - The company is experiencing significant pressure with a continued decline in revenue and net profit, with 2025H1 total revenue at 14.8 billion yuan, down 35.3% year-on-year, and net profit at 4.34 billion yuan, down 45.3% year-on-year [1][3] - The company is focusing on controlling the volume and maintaining prices of its main products, with a slight shift in product structure [1][2] - The company has adjusted its revenue and net profit forecasts for 2025-2027, expecting total revenue to be 20.34 billion yuan in 2025, down 29.6% year-on-year, and net profit to be 4.55 billion yuan, down 31.8% year-on-year [3][5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2025H1, the company reported total revenue of 14.8 billion yuan, a decrease of 35.3% year-on-year, and a net profit of 4.34 billion yuan, a decrease of 45.3% year-on-year [1] - For 2025Q2, total revenue was 3.73 billion yuan, down 43.7% year-on-year, and net profit was 710 million yuan, down 62.7% year-on-year [1] - The sales volume of liquor decreased by 32.4% year-on-year, while the average price per ton decreased by 4.5% [1] Market Dynamics - Revenue from the domestic market decreased by 25.8% to 7.12 billion yuan, while revenue from the external market decreased by 42.7% to 7.39 billion yuan in 2025H1 [2] - The company is focusing on the Jiangsu market and optimizing its distribution channels, with a reduction of 268 distributors during the reporting period [2] Cost and Expenses - The sales expense ratio increased by 3.10 percentage points year-on-year in 2025H1, reflecting increased investment in consumer engagement and marketing activities [2] - E-commerce expenses rose by 39.8% to 32.54 million yuan, indicating a push towards online sales channels [2] Profitability Forecast - The company has revised its revenue and net profit forecasts, projecting total revenue of 20.34 billion yuan in 2025, 21.30 billion yuan in 2026, and 22.48 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding net profits of 4.55 billion yuan, 4.82 billion yuan, and 5.21 billion yuan [3][5] - The current stock price corresponds to a P/E ratio of 23.1 for 2025, with a projected dividend yield of 6.7% [3][5]