Nanhua Futures(SH:603093) Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-08-19 03:02Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report The medium - to long - term trend of precious metals may be bullish, while the short - term is in an overall oscillatory consolidation. For London gold, the support levels are at 3330 and then the 3300 integer mark, with resistance levels in the 3350 area, 3370, and 3400. For London silver, the support is at 37.5 and the resistance is in the 38.1 area and 39. The operation strategy is to maintain the idea of buying on dips [4]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs [行情回顾] - On Monday, the precious metals market had a narrow - range oscillatory consolidation with light trading. The market is focused on the guidance of the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Symposium on the Fed's future interest - rate cut prospects. Multiple investment banks on Monday evening dampened the optimistic expectations. Before the mid - September FOMC, one PCE, one non - farm payroll, and one CPI will be announced. Nomura expects Powell not to give a "clear commitment" on Friday; BofA expects Powell to hold a hawkish stance; Morgan Stanley expects Powell to emphasize inflation risks and resist the market's interest - rate cut expectations. The US dollar index rebounded, short - term US bonds oscillated, yields on medium - and long - term bonds rose, Bitcoin fell, crude oil oscillated, the Chinese stock market was strong, and European and American stock markets oscillated. Finally, the COMEX gold 2512 contract closed at $3378 per ounce, down 0.14%; the US silver 2509 contract closed at $38.065 per ounce, up 0.24%. The SHFE gold 2510 main contract was at 777.66 yuan per gram, up 0.32%; the SHFE silver 2510 contract was at 9204 yuan per kilogram, down 1.23%. Geopolitically, after the "Trump - Zelensky meeting", Trump called Putin and said he was arranging a tri - party meeting, and both Russia and the US support direct Russia - Ukraine negotiations; Hamas agreed to a new Gaza cease - fire agreement proposed by the mediator [2]. [降息预期与基金持仓] - Expectations for the number of interest - rate cuts within the year have cooled, and the fantasy of a 50 - basis - point cut in September has been dashed. According to CME's "FedWatch" data, the probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in September is 7.9%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 92.1%; in October, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 3.2%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 41.7%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 55.2%; in December, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 0.8%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 12.6%, the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 45%, and the probability of a cumulative 75 - basis - point cut is 41.6%. In terms of long - term funds, the SPDR Gold ETF holdings decreased by 2.86 tons to 961.36 tons; the iShares Silver ETF holdings decreased by 28.25 tons to 15071.31 tons. In terms of inventory, SHFE silver inventory decreased by 15.7 tons to 1150.8 tons per day; as of the week ending August 8, SGX silver inventory decreased by 64.5 tons to 1304.5 tons per week [3]. [本周关注] - This week's data is light. Moderate attention should be paid to the US weekly initial jobless claims, housing data, and the US S&P manufacturing and services PMI. In terms of events, focus on the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Symposium. At 22:00 on Friday, Fed Chairman Powell will give a speech at the symposium. Additionally, at 23:00 on Wednesday, Fed Governor Waller will give a speech at a blockchain seminar in Wyoming. At 02:00 on Thursday, the Fed will release the minutes of its monetary policy meeting; at 03:00, 2027 FOMC voter and Atlanta Fed President Bostic will give a speech on the economic outlook [4]. [贵金属期现价格表] - The table shows the latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of SHFE and SGX gold and silver futures and spot contracts, as well as the CME gold - silver ratio [5]. [库存持仓表] - The table presents the latest values, daily changes, and daily change rates of SHFE, CME, and SGX gold and silver inventories, as well as SHFE gold and silver positions and SPDR gold and SLV silver ETF holdings [16][17]. [股债商汇总览] - The table shows the latest values, daily changes, and daily change rates of the US dollar index, US dollar - RMB exchange rate, Dow Jones Industrial Average, WTI crude oil spot, LmeS copper 03, 10 - year US Treasury yield, 10 - year US real interest rate, and 10 - 2 - year US Treasury yield spread [23].