Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company's revenue from gypsum boards is under pressure, but its two wings of business remain stable and are expanding [7][9] - The company reported a revenue of 13.558 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 0.29%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.930 billion yuan, down 12.85% year-on-year [8] - The company is focusing on promoting high-margin products and expanding overseas projects, with significant growth in its paint segment [9] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue and Profit Forecast: - Revenue is projected to grow from 22.426 billion yuan in 2023 to 31.016 billion yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 7.05% [6][10] - Net profit is expected to increase from 3.524 billion yuan in 2023 to 4.748 billion yuan in 2027, with a CAGR of approximately 13.98% [6][10] - Earnings Per Share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from 2.09 yuan in 2023 to 2.81 yuan in 2027 [6][10] - The company’s price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is projected to decrease from 11.20 in 2023 to 9.54 in 2027, indicating potential undervaluation [6][10] Business Segment Performance - Gypsum Board and Keel: - Revenue from gypsum boards was 6.677 billion yuan, down 8.57% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 38.68%, down 0.94 percentage points [7][9] - Revenue from keels was 1.137 billion yuan, down 10.72% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 21.65%, up 0.43 percentage points [7][9] - Waterproofing: - Revenue from waterproofing materials was 1.720 billion yuan, up 0.63% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 16.97%, down 2.34 percentage points [7][9] - Paint: - Revenue from paint was 2.511 billion yuan, up 40.82% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 31.79%, up 0.51 percentage points [7][9] Cost and Margin Analysis - The overall gross margin for the first half of 2025 was 30.35%, down 0.60 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to rising costs of raw materials [7][9] - The net profit margin decreased by 2.05 percentage points to 14.23% due to increased costs and competitive pressures [7][9] Cash Flow and Financial Health - The net cash flow from operating activities was 9.62 billion yuan, down 52.86% year-on-year, attributed to changes in accounts receivable [7][9] - The company’s liquidity ratios indicate a healthy financial position, with a current ratio of 2.19 and a quick ratio of 1.57 [10]
北新建材(000786):石膏板收入承压,两翼业务稳健