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零跑汽车(09863):首次半年度扭亏,全年盈利可期,全球战略提速

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "OUTPERFORM" rating for the company, with a target price of HK$88.27, reflecting a potential upside from the current price of HK$68.15 [2][18]. Core Insights - The company achieved a significant turnaround in the first half of 2025, reporting a revenue of Rmb24.25 billion, a 147% year-on-year increase, and a record gross margin of 14.1% [3][13]. - The management has raised its full-year sales guidance for 2025 from 500-600k units to 580-650k units, with a target of reaching 1 million units by 2026 [4][14]. - The company is focusing on rapid expansion in international markets, having established over 600 overseas sales and service outlets, with plans for local assembly in Malaysia and a manufacturing base in Europe [4][15]. Financial Performance - The company reported an adjusted net profit of Rmb330 million in the first half of 2025, marking its first-ever half-year profitability compared to a loss of Rmb2.02 billion in the same period last year [3][13]. - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 have been updated to Rmb65.9 billion, Rmb98.5 billion, and Rmb131.8 billion, reflecting increases of 3%, 18%, and 25% respectively [6][17]. - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025-2027 are Rmb0.53, Rmb3.07, and Rmb5.78, indicating a strong growth trajectory [6][17]. Product Development - The upcoming D-series flagship models, including the D16 SUV, are expected to launch in October 2025, targeting the Rmb200k-300k market segment with advanced technology [5][16]. - The company emphasizes a cost-performance strategy, aiming to provide premium features at lower costs, which is expected to enhance its competitive edge in the market [5][16].