LEAPMOTOR(HK:09863) SPDB International·2025-08-19 11:26Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Leap Motor (9863.HK) and raises the target price to HKD 83.0, indicating a potential upside of 22% from the current price of HKD 68.15 [2][4]. Core Insights - Leap Motor's sales and net profit guidance for the year exceed expectations, with a target of 580,000 to 650,000 vehicles for 2025. The company anticipates significant growth in both domestic and overseas markets, supported by new model launches and partnerships [8]. - The gross margin is expected to improve, with a forecasted annual gross margin of 14%-15% for the year, driven by increased sales volume and better product mix [8]. - The valuation methodology used is a sum-of-the-parts approach, applying a price-to-sales ratio of 1.6x for 2025 sales, leading to the target price of HKD 83.0 [8]. Financial Performance and Forecast - For Q2 2025, Leap Motor reported revenue of RMB 14.23 billion, a year-on-year increase of 166% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 42%. The gross margin was 13.6%, up 10.8 percentage points year-on-year [12]. - The company achieved a net profit of RMB 163 million in Q2 2025, marking a return to profitability after a loss in the previous quarter [12]. - Revenue projections for 2023 to 2027 show significant growth, with expected revenues of RMB 16.75 billion in 2023, increasing to RMB 108.44 billion by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate [3][9]. Valuation and Market Position - The current market capitalization of Leap Motor is approximately HKD 91.11 billion, with an average trading volume of HKD 472.2 million over the past three months [4]. - The report highlights that Leap Motor's current price-to-sales ratio is 1.1x, suggesting potential for revaluation as the company continues to grow [8]. - The financial forecasts indicate a steady improvement in profitability, with net losses expected to turn into profits by 2025, projecting a net profit of RMB 634 million [3][9].