TNMG(SZ:000630) Minsheng Securities·2025-08-19 23:30Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, indicating a potential upside of over 15% relative to the benchmark index [6][4]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 76.08 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 6.39%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 33.94% to 1.441 billion yuan [1]. - The copper price remained stable, but the spot TC (treatment charge) significantly decreased, while sulfuric acid prices surged [2]. - The company’s smelting profits showed resilience, primarily due to contributions from by-products, despite a notable decline in copper processing fees [2]. - A one-time tax expense adjustment led to a significant drop in reported profits, but the underlying operational performance remains stable when adjusted [3]. - The company is focused on strengthening its copper industry chain, with the Mirador copper mine's second phase expected to enhance self-sufficiency and production capacity [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 40.858 billion yuan, reflecting a 5.33% year-on-year increase and a 16.00% quarter-on-quarter increase. However, the quarterly net profit dropped to 312 million yuan, a decrease of 71.23% year-on-year [1]. - The company’s net profit forecast for 2025-2027 is projected to be 3.789 billion yuan, 4.694 billion yuan, and 5.715 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 14x, 12x, and 10x [4][5]. Market Conditions - The average price of electrolytic copper in Q2 2025 was 77,000 yuan/ton, showing a slight increase from Q1 2025, while the average price of sulfuric acid rose significantly [2]. - The copper concentrate TC spot index averaged -8.68 and -40.67 USD/ton in Q2 and Q1 2025, respectively, indicating a substantial year-on-year decrease [2]. Strategic Outlook - The company is advancing its copper-based new materials project and expects to enhance smelting capacity, benefiting from its geographical advantages [3]. - The Mirador copper mine is projected to produce 155,000 tons of copper in 2024, with further increases expected upon the completion of the second phase in 2025 [3].