综合晨报：7月财政收入同比增2.6%-20250820

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Short - term, the price is expected to be weak, and investors should be aware of correction risks [15] - Stock Index Futures: It is recommended to evenly allocate long positions in various stock index futures to cope with the rapidly rotating market [16] - US Dollar Index: Expected to maintain a volatile trend [20] - US Stock Index Futures: If Powell's speech at the Global Central Bank Annual Meeting is hawkish, there may be fluctuations in recent interest - rate cut trades, and investors should be aware of correction risks [21] - Soybean Meal: The futures price is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger. Pay attention to the results of this week's field inspections and the situation of China's soybean and soybean meal purchases from other countries [22] - Edible Oils (Soybean, Rapeseed, Palm): After the market stabilizes, it may be an opportunity to lay out long positions [24] - Cotton: In the short term, Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be strongly volatile, but the upside space is limited. In the fourth - quarter when new cotton is in large supply, the market is not optimistic [30] - Steel (Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil): The steel price is expected to have correction pressure in the near future, and investors should pay attention to volatility risks [34] - Corn Starch: When the new - season output is determined, the price difference between corn starch and corn (CS11 - C11) is expected to strengthen [35] - Steam Coal: In the short term, the coal price will be volatile around 700 yuan, and the seasonal decline may start around September [37] - Iron Ore: In the short term, the ore price will be volatile and slightly weak, but a trending decline is difficult to occur [38] - Corn: Hold short positions in the 11 and 01 contracts and continue to hold the 11 - 3 reverse spread. If the 11 - 1 spread strengthens, also pay attention to reverse - spread opportunities [39] - Polysilicon: Unilaterally, maintain a bullish view on corrections. For arbitrage, consider the 11 - 12 reverse spread opportunity around - 2000 yuan/ton [43] - Industrial Silicon: The short - term price may fluctuate between 8200 - 9200 yuan/ton. Pay attention to range - trading opportunities [45] - Lead: In the short term, it is recommended to wait and see [48] - Zinc: Unilaterally, it is difficult to trade in the short term, so wait and see. For arbitrage, pay attention to medium - term positive - spread opportunities. Before the overseas inventory hits bottom, maintain a positive - spread trading idea [51] - Nickel: In the short term, pay attention to band - trading opportunities. In the medium term, consider short - selling opportunities when the price is high [54] - Lithium Carbonate: In the short term, the price is expected to be strong. Hold existing long positions and pay attention to opportunities to add long positions on dips. Avoid short positions in the medium term [57] - Crude Oil: It is expected to maintain a volatile trend due to the lack of directional drivers [59] - Carbon Emissions (CEA): Short - term volatility is expected [61] - PTA: In the short term, the unilateral price will fluctuate with the cost side. Try to go long lightly on dips and roll positions [63] - Styrene: At the current price, it should be treated as volatile. Pay attention to cost - side changes caused by oil - price fluctuations due to meetings between the US and Russia [66] - Caustic Soda: The futures price is expected to be volatile [68] - Paper Pulp: The short - term market is expected to be volatile [70] - PVC: The short - term futures price is expected to be weak [71] - Urea: If the 2601 contract continues to rise tomorrow, long positions may consider taking profits. Then, adjust the strategy according to actual changes [73] - Soda Ash: Maintain a short - selling strategy when the price is high and continue to pay attention to supply - side disturbances [75] - Bottle Chips: Pay attention to the pressure brought by device resumption and new device commissioning from late August to September. The absolute price mainly fluctuates with polyester raw materials [77] - Float Glass: For unilateral trading, be cautious. Focus on arbitrage operations, such as going long on glass and short on soda ash when the spread widens [78] - Container Freight Index: The short - term futures price is expected to be volatile. Continue to pay attention to short - selling opportunities when the price is high [81] 2. Core Views - The A - share market is in a high - level shock after a rise, with trading volume remaining above 2 trillion yuan. The market sentiment is hot, and it is still easy to rise and difficult to fall in the absence of more negative news [16] - The market's expectation of resolving the Russia - Ukraine conflict has increased, but the situation is still delicate, and the US dollar index continues to fluctuate [19] - The technology sector has corrected significantly, and the US stock market is expected to be volatile and weak in the near future, waiting for Powell's speech at the Global Central Bank Annual Meeting [21] - The supply and demand of various commodities are different. Some are affected by production, policies, and inventory, while others are influenced by international trade and weather conditions, resulting in different price trends [22][33][42] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The Trump administration has expanded the scope of steel and aluminum tariffs, covering 407 product categories with a 50% tax rate. Trump said the US will help Ukraine defend but not send ground troops, and the US plans a tri - party meeting. Gold prices are under pressure due to the cooling of risk - aversion sentiment and the expected hawkish stance of Powell [13][14] 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - In July, the national general public budget revenue was 20273 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.6%, the highest increase this year. The A - share market is in a high - level shock after a rise, with trading volume above 2 trillion yuan [16] 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The White House is considering hosting a Russia - Ukraine leaders' meeting in Budapest. The market's expectation of resolving the Russia - Ukraine conflict has increased, and the US dollar index continues to fluctuate [19] 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The Trump administration is discussing acquiring a 10% stake in Intel. The technology sector has corrected, and the US stock market is expected to be volatile and weak in the near future, waiting for Powell's speech [21] 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - Private exporters sold 228,600 tons of soybeans to Mexico. The expectation of a bumper US soybean harvest has strengthened, and domestic market participants are concerned about soybean purchases from other countries and the arrival of imported Argentine soybean meal [22] 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - As of August 15, 2025, the commercial inventory of soybean oil and palm oil has increased. The decline in the oil market is due to profit - taking by long - position funds. After the market stabilizes, it may be an opportunity to lay out long positions [23][24] 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - The growth progress of US cotton is slow, but the good - quality rate has increased. In July, China's cotton imports increased month - on - month but decreased year - on - year. The supply of domestic new cotton before listing is tight, but the price may be high at the beginning and then decline [25][29][30] 3.2.4 Black Metals (Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil) - In July, China's steel production data showed different trends. Steel prices are weak, and the market's attention to "anti - involution" has decreased. The impact of environmental protection restrictions during the parade on supply is limited, and the inventory accumulation rate has accelerated [31][33] 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The spot price of corn starch has stabilized. The price of raw corn has rebounded, and the cost support for corn starch has increased. The current starch inventory pressure is high, and the profit is expected to be weak in the long term [35] 3.2.6 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - Heavy rain in Ordos has affected coal production and transportation. Although the daily consumption has decreased, the supply is restricted in the short term, and the coal price will be volatile around 700 yuan. The seasonal decline may start around September [36][37] 3.2.7 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - The Sydvaranger iron ore in Norway is restarting. The ore price is affected by the seasonal demand pressure and the performance of the steel products. In the short term, it will be volatile and slightly weak, but a trending decline is difficult [38] 3.2.8 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The成交 rate of the imported corn auction has decreased. The futures price has continued to decline, and the 11 and 01 contracts are expected to decline due to selling pressure [39] 3.2.9 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - Six departments held a photovoltaic industry symposium. The policy aims to regulate the competition order. The fundamental situation is bearish for the market, but the price has support at 49,000 yuan/ton. Unilaterally, maintain a bullish view on corrections, and consider the 11 - 12 reverse spread opportunity around - 2000 yuan/ton [40][42][43] 3.2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - A high - performance organic silicon project has been approved. The supply of industrial silicon is expected to increase marginally in August, but it may still be in a de - stocking state. In September, it may enter a stocking pattern. The short - term price may fluctuate between 8200 - 9200 yuan/ton [44][45] 3.2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - Jinhuai Co., Ltd. has increased the production of zinc and lead concentrates. The external market has seen 20,000 tons of warehouse receipts, and the domestic market has followed the macro - trend. The supply of refined lead is under pressure, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [46][47][48] 3.2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The LME zinc warehouse receipt concentration has increased, and the inventory has decreased. The domestic zinc price has fallen, and the fundamentals have weakened. It is recommended to wait and see unilaterally, pay attention to medium - term positive - spread opportunities, and maintain a positive - spread trading idea before the overseas inventory hits bottom [49][50][51] 3.2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - The Berong nickel mine in the Philippines plans to operate in the fourth quarter. The LME and SHFE inventories have decreased. The price of nickel ore has a downward expectation in September - October. The supply of nickel iron is in excess, and the short - term supply - demand contradiction of refined nickel has weakened. Pay attention to short - term band - trading and medium - term short - selling opportunities [52][53][54] 3.2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Yichang Bangpu's 450,000 - ton lithium iron phosphate project is about to be put into production, and Yichun Yinli will resume production. The supply - side disturbance has not been completely eliminated, and the demand is strong in the third quarter. The short - term price is expected to be strong [55][56][57] 3.2.15 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The US API crude oil inventory has decreased, and the gasoline inventory has also decreased, while the refined oil inventory has increased. The oil price is volatile and weak, and there is no clear directional driver [58][59] 3.2.16 Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The CEA price has increased slightly. The trading volume has not expanded significantly. The price may be under pressure due to the release of supply in the short term. The overall supply - demand structure this year is balanced and loose, and the price is expected to be volatile in the short term [59][60][61] 3.2.17 Energy Chemicals (PTA) - The PTA spot price has increased, and the basis has strengthened. The weaving load has rebounded slightly, and the polyester load has also increased marginally. The processing fee may be slightly repaired. The unilateral price will fluctuate with the cost side, and it is recommended to go long lightly on dips [61][62][63] 3.2.18 Energy Chemicals (Styrene) - The Fushun Petrochemical's 60,000 - ton/year styrene unit will be shut down for maintenance. The short - term supply of pure benzene is expected to be slightly de - stocked, and the supply of styrene will be high in the short term but may decrease in September. The current price of styrene is expected to be volatile [64][65][66] 3.2.19 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong has increased slightly. The supply has not changed much, and the demand from downstream alumina is good. The high - concentration caustic soda price may increase slightly, and the futures price is expected to be volatile [67][68] 3.2.20 Energy Chemicals (Paper Pulp) - The price of imported wood pulp has mostly stabilized, and the futures price has declined. The market is lackluster, and the short - term market is expected to be volatile [69][70] 3.2.21 Energy Chemicals (PVC) - The domestic PVC powder price has decreased. The futures price is weak, and the export may decline due to India's anti - dumping ruling. The short - term futures price is expected to be weak [71] 3.2.22 Energy Chemicals (Urea) - China's Foreign Minister is visiting India. The urea futures price has risen sharply. The domestic supply - demand is relatively loose, and the price may not have much room to fall in the short term. Pay attention to the impact of the improvement of China - India relations on exports [72][73] 3.2.23 Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The soda ash market in Shahe is in a low - level shock. The supply is high, and the demand is weak. After the bullish sentiment fades, the price is expected to be short - sold when it is high [74][75] 3.2.24 Energy Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - The export price of bottle chips has changed little, and the domestic price has increased slightly. The main factories will continue to cut production in August. Pay attention to the pressure brought by device resumption and new device commissioning from late August to September [76][77] 3.2.25 Energy Chemicals (Float Glass) - The price of float glass in Shahe has decreased slightly. The market is under pressure, and the demand is mainly for rigid needs. It is recommended to be cautious in unilateral trading and focus on arbitrage operations [78] 3.2.26 Shipping Index (Container Freight) - The Panama Canal plans to build two new ports. The container freight rate has decreased, and the supply pressure in September has improved marginally. The demand has weakened, and the freight rate is expected to continue to decline. The short - term futures price is expected to be volatile, and pay attention to short - selling opportunities when the price is high [79][80][81]