SHENHUO COAL&POWER(SZ:000933) Guoxin Securities·2025-08-20 02:16Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [4][23]. Core Views - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 17% in the first half of 2025, with revenue reaching 20.43 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.1%. The net profit was 1.9 billion yuan, down 16.6% year-on-year, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 2.01 billion yuan, down 6.8% year-on-year. The net cash flow from operating activities was 4.43 billion yuan [5][6]. - The decline in profitability is primarily due to falling coal prices. In the first half of 2025, coal production was 3.71 million tons, returning to normal levels, with production costs decreasing to 682 yuan per ton from 862 yuan per ton in 2024. However, coal prices fell more significantly, with an average selling price of 773 yuan per ton, down 260 yuan per ton from 2024. The gross profit per ton of coal was 91 yuan, a decrease of 78 yuan from 2024. Starting from the end of June, coking coal prices have rebounded, and the profitability of the coal segment is expected to improve in the third quarter [5][6]. - The electrolytic aluminum segment showed stable profitability, with production reaching 870,000 tons in the first half of 2025, marking the first full production year since the establishment of Yunnan Shenhuo. The operating cost for electrolytic aluminum was 12,283 yuan per ton, with a gross profit of 3,986 yuan per ton, remaining stable compared to the full year of 2024 [2][5]. Financial Forecasts and Key Indicators - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are 39.606 billion yuan, 39.827 billion yuan, and 39.827 billion yuan, respectively, with net profits of 4.56 billion yuan, 4.78 billion yuan, and 4.84 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 5.9%, 4.9%, and 1.2% [3][21]. - The diluted EPS for 2025-2027 is projected to be 2.03 yuan, 2.13 yuan, and 2.15 yuan, with corresponding PE ratios of 9.5x, 9.0x, and 8.9x [2][21]. - The company is positioned as a leading player in the domestic electrolytic aluminum market, benefiting from structural reforms in supply-side management and is currently in an industry upcycle. With the end of large-scale capital expenditures, there is potential for increased dividends [2][21].