Nanhua Futures(SH:603093) Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-08-20 04:02Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoint The medium to long - term outlook for precious metals is potentially bullish, while the short - term trend is weak and consolidating. After London gold breaks below the 3330 mark, it may further retrace to the 3300 integer level, with resistance in the 3350 area. London silver has broken below 37.5, with support shifting down to 37 and resistance in the 37.7 - 38 areas. The operation strategy remains to buy on dips [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - On Tuesday, the precious metals market was in weak consolidation. The rising US dollar index exerted pressure, and the expectation of peace talks between Russia and Ukraine reduced the geopolitical risk premium. The market is focused on the guidance of the global central bank annual meeting on the future interest - rate cut prospects of the Federal Reserve. COMEX gold 2512 contract closed at $3358.9 per ounce, down 0.57%; COMEX silver 2509 contract closed at $37.33 per ounce, down 1.84%. SHFE gold 2510 main contract was at 775.06 yuan per gram, down 0.13%; SHFE silver 2510 contract was at 9187 yuan per kilogram, down 0.25% [2]. 3.2 Interest - Rate Cut Expectations and Fund Holdings - Interest - rate cut expectations remained stable. According to CME's "FedWatch" data, the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in September is 13.9%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 86.1%. In October, the probability of unchanged rates is 6.5%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 47.5%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 46%. In December, the probability of unchanged rates is 1.2%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 14%, the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 47.2%, and the probability of a cumulative 75 - basis - point cut is 37.6%. - Long - term fund holdings: SPDR Gold ETF holdings decreased by 3.2 tons to 962.2 tons; iShares Silver ETF holdings decreased by 17 tons to 15339.6 tons. SHFE silver inventory increased by 11 tons to 1149.4 tons, and SGX silver inventory decreased by 17.7 tons to 1286.8 tons as of the week ending August 15 [3]. 3.3 This Week's Focus - This week's data is light. Pay moderate attention to the US weekly initial jobless claims, housing data, and the US S&P manufacturing and services PMI. The key event is the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting. On Friday at 22:00, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will speak at the meeting. Additionally, on Wednesday at 23:00, Fed Governor Christopher Waller will speak at a blockchain seminar in Wyoming. On Thursday at 02:00, the Fed will release the minutes of its monetary policy meeting, and at 03:00, 2027 FOMC voter and Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic will speak on the economic outlook [4]. 3.4 Price and Inventory Data - Precious Metals Futures and Spot Prices: SHFE gold main - continuous contract was at 775.06 yuan per gram, down 0.33%; SGX gold TD was at 772.4 yuan per gram, down 0.31%; CME gold main contract was at $3358.9 per ounce, down 0.57%. SHFE silver main - continuous contract was at 9187 yuan per kilogram, down 0.77%; SGX silver TD was at 9183 yuan per kilogram, down 0.48%; CME silver main contract was at $37.33 per ounce, down 1.93% [4][5]. - Inventory and Position Data: SHFE gold inventory was 36333 kilograms, down 0.03%; CME gold inventory was 1201.5012 tons, down 0.05%; SHFE gold position was 191435 lots, down 1.32%; SPDR gold position was 962.21 tons, down 0.33%. SHFE silver inventory was 1149.446 tons, up 0.97%; CME silver inventory was 15805.2897 tons, up 0.12%; SGX silver inventory was 1286.835 tons, down 1.35%; SHFE silver position was 342500 lots, down 2.35%; SLV silver position was 15339.657474 tons, down 0.11% [15]. 3.5 Other Market Data - Stock, Bond, and Commodity Overview: The US dollar index was at 98.2652, up 0.12%; the US dollar - to - RMB exchange rate was 7.1865, unchanged. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was at 44922.27 points, up 0.02%. WTI crude oil spot was at $62.35 per barrel, down 1.69%. LmeS copper 03 was at $9684.5 per ton, down 0.69%. The 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.3%, down 0.92%; the 10 - year US real interest rate was 1.95%, down 0.51%; the 10 - 2 year US Treasury yield spread was 0.55%, down 3.51% [18].