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南华期货铜风险管理日报-20250820

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Copper prices continued to fluctuate on Tuesday and are expected to remain volatile in the short term. The previous support level of 77,000 yuan per ton has been raised to 78,000 yuan per ton. The Fed's meeting minutes and Powell's speech may have limited impact on copper prices, while the strong support of the US dollar index exerts pressure on the overall valuation of non - ferrous metals [3]. - There are both利多 and利空 factors for copper prices.利多 factors include reaching a tariff agreement, a decline in the US dollar index due to increased interest - rate cut expectations, and the upward shift of the support level.利空 factors include tariff policy fluctuations, reduced global demand due to tariffs, and an extremely high COMEX inventory caused by US copper tariff policy adjustments [4][5][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper Price and Volatility - The latest copper price is 78,890 yuan per ton, with a monthly price range forecast of 73,000 - 80,000 yuan per ton. The current volatility is 11.64%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility is 22.6% [2]. Copper Risk Management Suggestions - For inventory management with high finished - product inventory and concerns about price drops, sell 75% of Shanghai Copper main futures contracts around 82,000 yuan per ton and sell 25% of CU2510C82000 call options when volatility is relatively stable. - For raw material management with low raw material inventory and concerns about price increases, buy 75% of Shanghai Copper main futures contracts around 77,000 yuan per ton [2]. Copper Futures Market Data | Futures Contract | Unit | Latest Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Copper Main | Yuan/ton | 78,890 | 0 | 0% | | Shanghai Copper Continuous 1 | Yuan/ton | 78,870 | - 40 | - 0.05% | | Shanghai Copper Continuous 3 | Yuan/ton | 78,850 | 0 | 0% | | LME Copper 3M | US dollars/ton | 9,684.5 | - 67.5 | - 0.69% | | Shanghai - London Ratio | Ratio | 8.21 | 0.03 | 0.37% | [6] Copper Spot Data | Spot Type | Unit | Latest Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Non - ferrous 1 Copper | Yuan/ton | 79,100 | - 180 | - 0.23% | | Shanghai Wumaotong | Yuan/ton | 79,050 | - 230 | - 0.29% | | Guangdong Southern Reserve | Yuan/ton | 78,970 | - 180 | - 0.23% | | Yangtze River Non - ferrous | Yuan/ton | 79,220 | - 210 | - 0.26% | | Shanghai Non - ferrous Premium | Yuan/ton | 195 | - 30 | - 13.33% | | Shanghai Wumaotong Premium | Yuan/ton | 130 | - 40 | - 23.53% | | Guangdong Southern Reserve Premium | Yuan/ton | 155 | - 45 | - 22.5% | | Yangtze River Non - ferrous Premium | Yuan/ton | 185 | - 5 | - 2.63% | [12] Copper Scrap - to - Refined Spread | Spread Type | Unit | Latest Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Current Scrap - to - Refined Spread (Tax - included) | Yuan/ton | 1,049.89 | 36.38 | 3.59% | | Reasonable Scrap - to - Refined Spread (Tax - included) | Yuan/ton | 1,491.35 | - 0.7 | - 0.05% | | Price Advantage (Tax - included) | Yuan/ton | - 441.46 | 37.08 | - 7.75% | | Current Scrap - to - Refined Spread (Tax - excluded) | Yuan/ton | 5,735 | 30 | 0.53% | | Reasonable Scrap - to - Refined Spread (Tax - excluded) | Yuan/ton | 6,191.97 | - 4.86 | - 0.08% | | Price Advantage (Tax - excluded) | Yuan/ton | - 456.97 | 34.86 | - 7.09% | [17] Copper Warehouse Receipts and Inventories - Shanghai Copper warehouse receipts total 25,498 tons (unchanged), and International Copper warehouse receipts total 8,780 tons, a decrease of 5,571 tons (- 38.82%). - LME copper inventory totals 155,150 tons, a decrease of 450 tons (- 0.29%). - COMEX copper inventory totals 269,943 tons, an increase of 4,054 tons (1.52%) [21][23][24]. Copper Import Profit and Processing - The copper import profit is 332.39 yuan per ton, an increase of 3.25 yuan (0.99%). The copper concentrate TC is - 37.67 US dollars per ton, unchanged [25].