Kouzijiao(SH:603589) HTSC·2025-08-20 06:42Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [6][4]. Core Views - The company reported a significant decline in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, with total revenue of 2.53 billion and net profit attributable to the parent company of 720 million, reflecting year-on-year decreases of 20.1% and 24.6% respectively [1][4]. - The second quarter of 2025 saw even more pronounced challenges, with total revenue dropping by 48.5% year-on-year [1]. - The company is focusing on long-term health and is actively adjusting its tactical approach, anticipating improvements in external demand and channel confidence [1][4]. - The report projects a gradual recovery in the market, driven by the company's ongoing product series cultivation and marketing system adjustments [1][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company's revenue from high-end, mid-range, and low-end liquor was 2.38 billion, 30 million, and 70 million respectively, with year-on-year declines of 20%, 11%, and 3% [2]. - The second quarter of 2025 showed a stark contrast, with high-end liquor revenue down 50% year-on-year, while low-end liquor saw an 8% increase [2]. - The company's gross margin decreased by 2.6 percentage points to 73.1% in the first half of 2025, with a more significant drop of 9.9 percentage points to 65.2% in the second quarter [3]. Market Strategy - The company is increasing its focus on marketing reforms within its home province, with a net increase of 34 and 29 distributors in the province and outside respectively [2]. - The report highlights a notable growth in the company's e-commerce business, with direct sales revenue increasing by 44% year-on-year in the first half of 2025 [2]. Earnings Forecast - The earnings forecast for 2025-2027 has been adjusted downwards, with projected revenues of 5.112 billion, 5.250 billion, and 5.490 billion respectively, reflecting year-on-year declines of 17%, 20%, and 21% [4]. - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025-2027 are 2.20, 2.26, and 2.38 yuan, with reductions of 24%, 26%, and 28% compared to previous forecasts [4].