Zhongtai Securities(SH:600918) Zhong Tai Qi Huo·2025-08-20 07:04Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short term, the arrival at the port is expected to increase next week, and the supply side has certain support. However, affected by the low departure from New Zealand and the rising foreign quotation, the import volume of Chinese ports in August is expected to be relatively low [6][7]. - The off - season continues, and the port outbound is still weak. Although the terminal real - estate start - up rate has decreased month - on - month, the short - term demand is weak but the decline space is limited. As the peak season approaches, the outbound is expected to improve gradually [8][9]. - The total arrival at the port is still low, but there are signs of demand recovery. If the arrival at the port remains weak, the inventory is expected to decline steadily [9]. - The foreign quotation is expected to rise, and the spot price is relatively stable as the peak season approaches. The subsequent rise in the foreign quotation may support the domestic spot to some extent. The fundamentals of the futures market are volatile, and the futures price is affected by capital and commodity sentiment [11]. - The foreign quotation has rebounded, the import profit has declined, and the short - term fundamentals are still in a weak and volatile state. Affected by the weak demand of downstream and terminal, the profits of logs and timber are expected to show a weak trend [15]. - For the industrial chain, the spot price is stable. It is reported that the arrival at the port is expected to increase slightly this week. As the peak season approaches, the outbound may improve slightly, and the inventory is expected to decline slightly. For the futures market, the fundamentals are volatile, and the futures price is affected by capital and commodity sentiment. In the short term, it is recommended to observe and conduct appropriate hedging at high prices according to the actual spot situation [17]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Part 1 Log Overview Supply - side - The number of arriving ships on August 15, 2025, was 8, a decrease of 7 compared with August 8, with an expected increase to 9 next week. The arrival volume was 25.1 million cubic meters, a decrease of 22 million cubic meters compared with August 8. The import volume of coniferous logs was 217.68 million cubic meters, a decrease of 1.39 million cubic meters month - on - month and 7% year - on - year. The import volume of radiata pine was 160.68 million cubic meters, a decrease of 8.32 million cubic meters month - on - month and 6% year - on - year [7]. - From the seasonal perspective of New Zealand's shipments, June and July are the off - seasons. In July, New Zealand shipped 46 ships with a volume of 175.5 million cubic meters, remaining at a low level for two consecutive months. Affected by the low departure from New Zealand and the rising foreign quotation, the import willingness of domestic traders is suppressed to some extent [7]. Demand and Inventory - side - The weekly outbound volume of the whole country was 44.31 million cubic meters on August 15, a decrease of 0.6 million cubic meters compared with August 8. The apparent demand was 30.10 million cubic meters, a decrease of 28.3 million cubic meters compared with August 8. The inventory was 353.75 million cubic meters, a decrease of 5 million cubic meters compared with August 8 [9]. - The off - season continues, and the port outbound is still weak. Although the terminal real - estate start - up rate has decreased month - on - month, the short - term demand is weak but the decline space is limited. As the peak season approaches, the outbound is expected to improve gradually. The total arrival at the port is still low, but there are signs of demand recovery. If the arrival at the port remains weak, the inventory is expected to decline steadily [9]. Price and Spread - The foreign quotation of radiata pine is expected to rise, and the spot price is stable. The fundamentals of the futures market are volatile, and the futures price is affected by capital and commodity sentiment. The wood square price is stable, and the downside space is limited due to the support of raw material costs [11]. - The spot spread is relatively stable. Affected by the spot spread, the current basis can be considered at the level of 5.9m medium - grade A radiata pine, with a reference size difference of 8%, equivalent to about 780 - 790 yuan per cubic meter on the futures market [13]. Cost and Profit - The import cost of radiata pine is 998 yuan per cubic meter on August 15, an increase of 7 yuan compared with August 8. The import cost of spruce is 1270 yuan per cubic meter, an increase of 11 yuan compared with August 8. The import profit of radiata pine is - 61 yuan per cubic meter, a decrease of 7 yuan compared with August 8. The import profit of spruce is - 120 yuan per cubic meter, a decrease of 11 yuan compared with August 8 [15]. - The foreign quotation has rebounded, the import profit has declined, and the short - term fundamentals are still in a weak and volatile state. Affected by the weak demand of downstream and terminal, the profits of logs and timber are expected to show a weak trend [15]. Strategy Recommendation - For the industrial chain, the spot price is stable. It is reported that the arrival at the port is expected to increase slightly this week. As the peak season approaches, the outbound may improve slightly, and the inventory is expected to decline slightly [17]. - For the futures market, the fundamentals are volatile, and the futures price is affected by capital and commodity sentiment. In the short term, it is recommended to observe and conduct appropriate hedging at high prices according to the actual spot situation [17]. Part 2 Log Balance Sheet - The report provides the weekly balance sheet of logs from June 6, 2025, to August 15, 2025, including arrival numbers, arrival volumes, daily average outbound volumes, apparent demand, inventory by region and species, total inventory, and supply - demand differences [20]. Part 3 Log Supply - Demand Analysis Supply - side - No specific content about New Zealand log shipments, log imports, and imports by species is described, only the headings are provided [26][28][31]. Demand - side - No specific content about the daily average outbound volume of logs, real - estate, and downstream substitutes is described, only the headings are provided [35][37][55]. Inventory - side - No specific content about inventory summary, inventory by species, and inventory by region is described, only the headings are provided [59][61][67]. Part 4 Cost and Profit - No specific content about log import cost and profit, and log delivery profit is described, only the headings are provided [73][78]. Part 5 Log Price and Spread Analysis Log Foreign Quotation - No specific content is described, only the heading is provided [85]. Seasonality of Radiata Pine and Spruce Prices - The report shows the seasonal price trends of 3.9m pulp, 3.9m small A, 3.9m medium A, 3.9m large A, 5.9m medium A radiata pine, and 11.8m spruce from 2024 to 2025 [88][89]. Seasonality of Radiata Pine and Spruce Spreads - No specific content is described, only the heading is provided [91]. Radiata Pine and LG Basis - No specific content is described, only the heading is provided [97]. LG Main Contract Seasonal Chart and Inter - month Spread - The report shows the seasonal price trend of the LG main contract from 2024 to 2025 [99][100].